Posted on 02/04/2008 5:49:24 AM PST by jdm
Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics have done their best to keep up with the Super Tuesday primaries across over 20 states, and the polling seems to show a slight shift in momentum for Mitt Romney, at least in California. Mitt has pulled into a tie with John McCain, whose support among moderates made this a more likely win for the Arizona Senator:
In California, Republican Primary Voters are evenly divided between John McCain and Mitt Romney. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain attracting 38% of the vote and Romney earning an identical 38%. Mike Huckabee is a distant third at 10%, Ron Paul picks up 6%, and 6% say they’ll vote for some other candidate.
Earlier in the week, McCain had a small advantage over Romney. Since then, Giuliani dropped out of the race and endorsed McCain. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger also endorsed the GOP frontrunner. While those events may have helped McCain, a conservative backlash for anybody-but-McCain appears to have helped Romney.
Romney leads 42% to 37% among conservative voters while McCain leads by eleven points among political moderates. McCain has a slight lead among men while Romney leads among women.
Zogby has Romney on top by eight in the Golden State. If that holds, Romney could pull off an impressive win and secure more delegates than he'd dreamed in California. Zogby, however, is normally an unreliable predictive indicator, and Rasmussen's polling has proven more reliable than most.
Rasmussen also has Romney behind by four nationally in its daily tracking poll. That is a step backwards for Romney, who had tied McCain in its tracking poll last week. The tracking polls are not as reliable as the standard Rasmussen polling either, but the fluctuations probably capture the volatility in the race accurately enough.
Real Clear Politics' polling aggregates don't show much Mittmentum elsewhere. Romney only has a commanding lead in Massachusetts, while McCain leads by significant margins in at least a half-dozen major states, including the winner-take-all New York, New Jersey, and Arizona primaries. If Romney plans to battle McCain to a draw tomorrow, he'll have to overcome a 200-delegate head start.
That dang Mickey Mouse! Well, I guess it's somewhat of a home state for him....
101 New York
58 Missouri
53 Arizona
52 New Jersey
30 Connecticut
294 delegates just from winner-take-all
Romney winner-take-all wins
36 Utah
Unknown advantage winner-take-all
25 Montana
18 Delaware
Exactly!
Sick of McClaim. Did everything against conservative values, and now claims he is a conservative.
A vote for Mike Huckabee is a vote for John McCain.
Montana is definitely Romney territory.
I hope there is “Mittmentum”.
He's the only one to campaign there. We'll see. There are a very small number of people who vote. I'd imagine Romney got a lot of Mormons into precinct positions.
This may be true on the whole, but in Florida, Rasmussen had Romney up by about 2-3% and Zogby had McManiac up by about 5-6%, and as it turned out, Zogby hit it spot-on in FL.
Rasmussen’s polling has been more weighted to Romney than other polls, and has underestimated McCain. I suspect his turnout screening is tighter and higher turnout has pushed things McCain’s way.
McCain is going to leave the GOP when he doesn’t get the nomination this time.
Maybe you can follow him out : )
John McCain changed after the 2000 election. Now he will try to return to being the pre-2000 McCain. It won’t work.
...”Zogby hit it spot-on in FL.”
Exactly. And I sure hope and pray Zogby’s spot-on in California too.
After McCain’s terrible performance in the debate last week, maybe Republicans in California are beginning to wise up to the fact that McCain would make a very poor nominee.
Believe me, I’ve thought of leaving the GOP. Too many scumbag liberals like Mitt as officeholders.
But it is working and will likely continue to work. The American People as a whole do not follow politics as do Freepers and they will believe whatever the MSM tells them.
How else can you explain McCain winning anywhere among Republicans.... how soon they forget Keating, alliances for bad legislation with Feingold, and Kennedy, and Lieberman.
And perhaps one of his worst moves, leading the gang of 14!
I’m supporting John McCain. I didn’t used to, but now I do.
Agreed.
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