So long as there are three candidates, it is hard to determine how many votes are “for” someone, vs how many are “against” someone.
For example, a Huckabee supporter might say they chose Huckabee because Mitt is a Mormon. OK, that’s not good. But would that same voter choose Obama because Mitt is a mormon? We don’t know.
When asked, 40% said they wouldn’t vote for a mormon. But that’s the same number that said they wouldn’t vote for Romney. IT’s clear that somehow the pollster let it be known that Romney was a mormon, and the “mormon” question was a “romney” question.
And at this point, if a poll is of the general election, you are going to see 40% oppose a candidate, because that’s the 40% that are for the other party no matter what.
Anyway, McCain should be a slam dunk but he can’t break 38%, and Huckabee supposedly is a conservative AND a christian and he isn’t getting the votes either.
If Huckabee drops out, and Romney can’t get more than 50% against McCain, then it’s clear he isn’t the person we hoped. On the other hand, there’s also no reason to believe that 80% of the people voting for McCain in Florida wouldn’t vote for Romney against Hillary and Obama.
Romney has actually improved somewhat in head-to-heads, and frankly he STILL is not a household name like McCain.
You left of the option in question, choice number three, the "I won't elect a democrat, but I ain't votin' for no Mormon, them thar republicans have done lost their minds, I'm goin' fishin'" vote.
You also leave off the "Mitt Romney's record is spotty at best, I think I'll let it slide this time and hope someone sensible comes along in 2012"vote.
Like I said Charles, Mitt's issue is not beating Hillary but winning key parts of the base and there is more than enough who will not bite at any price to cause his loss.
He may well be a born again hard Conservative, but he was a bad choice for a candidate on a national level. He looks really good and sounds good but that is a lousy basis to chose a leader on. Everyone got stars in their eyes and now we are stuck.