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“I’m estimating perhaps a 7 seat loss in the Senate, 8 with McCain’s resignation since the rodent Governor will appoint a successor”

I don’t see how we can lose 7 in the Senate. We will almost certainly pick up Landrieu’s seat in LA, and if the NRSC indeed has a big recruitment for SD to announce (which sounds like Mike Rounds) then we’ll pick up Johnson’s seat in SD as well. If Steve King runs in Iowa, which I think is likely, then Harkin could well go down. So for the Democrats to pick up 7 net seats they would need to pick up 8-10 gross seats, which I think is out of the question in 2008. Even if they pick up the open seats in VA and NM (in which they are currently leading, but will tighten before it’s over), they would also need to win very competitive races in CO and NH, races where they are behind in MN, OR and ME, and they’d still be 1-3 seats short of that goal. Where else do you think the RATs will win Senate elections? Alaska? Stevens will either retire or get knocked out in the primary, and we’ll hold that seat in a presidential year (if Lisa Murkowski could beat Tony Knowles by 4% in 2004, I don’t see how we can lose an open-seat race there in 2008). Mississippi? As much as I distrust Roger Wicker, I don’t think he’ll lose a run-off against Musgrave, who will come in second (I think the more conservative Shows could beat Wicker, but he won’t get into the run-off). SC? Graham or whoever beats him in the primary will win with at least 53% in November. NC? Dole will win with at least 54%, and probably around 60%. OK? Inhofe will win comfortably. TN? Alexander may be a skunk, but he’ll easily win. Frankly, I don’t think we can lose more than 6 net seats, and likely will lose not more than 2 net seats. And given that there are several races with out-of-touch Democrat incumbents in states in which McCain will probably carry (such as NJ, MI, WV and DE), there’s a chance that we may be able to pick up net seats (even if we only pick up LA, SD and IA, we can pick up a net seat if we only lose in VA and NM). All is not lost.

Regarding McCain’s seat, it is true that if he wins the presidency that Gov. Napolitano will name a Democrat to replace him. I was thinking about that yesterday morning, and came to the conclusion that if McCain wins the nomination (which I assume will be the case) he should resign from the Senate with enough time prior to November so that the remainder of his term (which ends in 2011) would be filled on Election Day. While Napolitano would be able to name a Democrat to serve for a month or two prior to the election, the GOP would be in excellent shape to win the seat in November (especially since Hillary won’t contest AZ if McCain is the GOP nominee) with several possible candidates (Congressmen Shadegg, Franks and Flake come to mind). What do you think?

If McCain ends up the nominee and if the media is successful in tearing him down and sinking the ticket, that 7 seat loss is quite possible. What do we lose in worst-case scenario ? Alaska (Stevens may refuse to leave, same with Young in the House), Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon and Virginia (perhaps even an 8th with Maine). This also presumes we fail against Johnson in SD (who could get the sympathy vote), Landrieu in LA (whose brother still managed to score a victory a few months back, and that has to be taken into account), and Harkin continues his winning streak against high-profile IA Congressmen. The only potential sleeper I see is in NJ where that self-financing RINO lady may have a shot against the ‘Corpse, but even that is unlikely, and I see nothing else we remotely have a shot at.

Regarding AZ, McCain may not particularly care if the seat goes to Grant Woods (which last I heard, Woods was still on friendly terms with him, even after he switched parties), and Woods is considered formidable (think of him as the Mike Moore of AZ), although he hasn’t last run a race since 1994. If Napolitano opts to appoint the current AG, Terry Goddard (although I think Goddard covets the Governorship when she steps down in 2011, since his father was Governor from 1965-67), he would also be tough to beat. Why I think she’d go with Woods is because without Goddard, the Dems don’t have an heir apparent for Governor (unless one of the House members runs). Of course, she could also appoint Goddard to the Senate, and appoint Grant Woods back to his old job as AG and still achieve her goals. McCain also may not wish to resign from the Senate and hedge his bets (a la Lieberman).

I’m hoping I’m wrong with all those seats and that it turns out we only shed 2 or 3 (about best case scenario), but there may be enough anger amongst base Conservatives that hate McCain as much as I detest Romney (who ought to be receiving even more scorn), that they don’t turn out to vote. Our party being badly short on funds makes it that much worse.