He used to be conservative back when Arizona was mostly populated by voting conservatives. But as it shifted left, he did too, to stay elelcted.
Arizona's two major lefty voting blocks are the hispanics (legal and otherwise), and the AARP. Arizona is to California what Florida is to New York. It's a retiree state.
People keep saying that he won Florida because of the Hispanic vote and this means he will do well in the Southwest. I think that is wrong. I think it was the AARP that put him over the top in FL--and I point to Rudi's poor showing as proof.
Except for Arizona, the border states do not have a strong AARP constituency. And even Arizona is fed up with illegal aliens as signified by the passage of news laws sanctioning employers who hire them that passed by 70+ percent margins.
The Border states do not like him. With Romny as their only alternative, I see Romny doing well in CA, AZ, NV, TX etc.
That is my hopeful analysis, anyway.
With Hucklebee as the wildcard.