The polls do not reflect early voting. We have been voting here since January 13th and up until a couple of days ago Rudy was the only one here. If the reports of up to 40% already cast are true then the polls are not taking into account a substantial amount of votes.
If Rooty thought this was true, he would have commissioned his own polls to show him doing better.
The REALITY is that Rooty Toot ALWAYS starts out as the frontrunner, but as soon as Republicans find out what he actually stands for, he loses most of his support. That is why he vanished from Iowa and New Hampshire and never even bothered to go to South Carolina. The whole "Florida strategy" was to try to find the least conservative voters and it's still not working.
Rooty should have learned from John sKerry's "I was in Vietnam" campaign strategy that just standing up and saying, "I was there on 9/11" would only get him so far, sooner or later Rooty had to start talking about the issues and that's what killed him.