Huckabee will be gone after Florida. Giuliani will soon follow (thank God!). Leaves McCain and Romney. Looks like Romney will be picking up the majority of the support from the dropped out conservatives Tancredo, Hunter and Thompson, but surprisingly, McCain is hanging in there. Question will be, which way will Huckabee’s Evangelicals break?
That's the $64,000 question. I think a lot may stay home without a genuine social conservative in the race. They'll think he's a phony or dislike his religion. I don't have problems with his religion, just him as a politician. I think I'll vote for Dr. Paul. At least I agree with his domestic proposals.
I need a brokered convention. I made a bet that neither Rudy, Mitt or McCain would get the nomination, and another bet the the GOP would win in November. None of those guys seem to believe in anything except themselves. Drat!
Which way will Huckabee’s evangelicals break?
They might fund him until it’s obvious that one of the others will have the magic number of delegates going into the convention. If it looks like it won’t be a first ballot convention, they’ll give Huck a leg up for the VP nod.
Other than that, most Americans don’t realize that McCain is as liberal as he is. Except for his statements about disdain for evangelicals a few years ago, I think they’ll be inclined to go along with his strength on national security issues. Also, he has been more pro-life throughout his career than has Romney. Romney’s mormonism won’t help with a lot of them.
I foresee a third party run by Alan Keyes. I've seen that since he announced his candidacy. And if it happens, it could very well put a Democrat in the White House like Perot's run did.
“Leaves McCain and Romney. Looks like Romney will be picking up the majority of the support from the dropped out conservatives Tancredo, Hunter and Thompson, but surprisingly, McCain is hanging in there. Question will be, which way will Huckabee’s Evangelicals break?”
Leading The News Sen. McCain starts urgent dash for cash
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1957946/posts
McCain won’t last too much longer.
Very soon, perhaps as soon as just after Florida, it will be Romney - the guy who supported abortion, gun control, and amnesty, until the moment he decided to run for the presidency... vs Ron Paul, who has been consistently conservative on all 3 of those major issues.
It’s a brokered convention which is the best possibility. None of the candidates currently in the running are very inspiring.
“Question will be, which way will Huckabee’s Evangelicals break?”
They’ll probably vote Dem. ;)
http://www.beliefnet.com/story/229/story_22903_1.html
For Huckabee -- especially in the South -- including Florida.
Based on South Carolina, I'd say they will split. Their interests would be better served by Romney, IMHO, but some have bought into the "Mormons worship Satan" garbage and will vote for anyone but Romney. As I stated long ago here, I have no problem with a Mormon president, just with that particular Mormon, IOW my problems with him have zero, zip, nada to do with his religion. I'd take most from Utah, but one liberal enough to get elected governor in Massachusetts? That makes me nervous. But then again I can't have high confidence in a guy that is a reverse ace, and would shut negate the first amendment 30 days before a primary and 60 days before a general election.
Question will be, which way will Huckabee’s Evangelicals break?
_________________________________________________________
It looks right now like evangelicals split pretty evenly in Florida between Huckabee, Romney and McCain. These are self-designated evangelicals, so your limiting them to “Huckabee’s Evangelicals” is right. I’m a late comer to the “Huckabee’s Evangelicals” group being more a straight line conservative in politics than just a member of one wing of the party.
Right now it looks like Huckabee has the possibility to take as many delegates on super Tuesday as Romney, so they aren’t breaking anywhere yet. If McCain has 400 or so delegates, Romney has 200 or so, and Huckabee has 200 or so after super-Tuesday, the question becomes more whether Romney and Huckabee both go for brokered convention . . . and why. I find it unlikely they’d work together, but odd couples happen. Romney has alienated both Huckabee and McCain with attack ads at this point — more a function of Romney’s cash I think than an intrinsic nastiness on Romney’s part — Romney has the money to do the rational thing in the game.
However, Romney can’t buy himself the win . . . that is becoming clear. So will Romney stay in, and continue to spend his own money to bring us to a brokered convention, or will he drop? Huckabee is doing this on low $’s (something that should give pause — how talented a politician do you have to be to run as well as Huckabee has with so little support by the money men in the party — and how committed and impervious to outside advertising is the evangelical vote?). They’ve got their own networks, their own websites, their own counselors. Whatever you can do in the future to ensure communication between evangelicals and mainstream conservatives in the future before the conservatives promote a candidate in the primaries would be important since the religious right and the conservative wing of the party are natural allies who need each other to win.
If Romney drops, Huck will likely stay in as the McCain alternative I think. If Huck drops, Romney will likely stay in as the McCain alternative. If it turns into a staring contest between Huck and Romney, who blinks? My bet is Romney cause this is costing Huck nothing while Romney is spending enough to buy major businesses outright in this election.