That is a good point - I remember that game but I was not connecting with the fact it was the Giants in that game - I just remember that the Patriots almost lost. Then why is the point spread so large?
The point spread posted by the Sportsbook has nothing to do with who the bookie thinks will win the game and how.
It has everything to do with how the bookie judges what the betting public thinks.
I post this analysis three or four times a year, but it never seems to get through.
The purpose of the spread is to equalize the betting, not to predict who will win the game. If the bookie thinks that half of the bettors will bet on the Patriots and give the 14 points, that is what the spread will be. If he thinks that more people will take the points than give him, he reduces the spread, and vice-versa.
A bookie only cares that the same amount of meny is bet on each side of the proposition. He then makes a full 10% of the take.