Several years ago, I put together an NFC Championship game history spreadsheet and mapped everything out in order to create a prediction scheme. The scheme worked pretty well in its early years, but has struggled in the last few, I think. I didn’t get in early enough today to put a prediction in before the game, so here goes, knowing that the game is over and the Giants won.
Both teams were playing in their 4th NFC championship game (which started in 1970). Prior to this year, only one team — Chicago last year — had won in their 4th NFC-C game. This would have been a pretty good predictor, except it applies equally to both teams, so is moot.
The Giants haven’t lost an NFC-C game. Green Bay was 2-1, having lost their first one in ‘95 to the Cowboys. 2 other teams came into their 4th game 3-0 and both lost. Only 1 team, the Cowboys, came in having gone 2-1 and they lost. This predictor is also moot.
Teams that were undefeated in their previous NFC-C games, regardless of how many times, were 7-4 in their next NFC-C game. Teams that had lost 1 NFC-C game, regardless of number of times, were 5-5 in their next game. Predictor: Giants.
Home teams are 22-12 in this game, but the difference is clearly due to the home team dominance in the ‘80s where they won 9 of 10. Before today you have 13-11 at all times other than the ‘80s, which provides no measurable advantage for GB. There are other good reasons to throw out the ‘80s for this game, at least in some areas. Dallas is 8-6 in this game and went 0-3 in the ‘80s. SF went 4-1 during the decade, but 1-6 during all other times. Those are the two teams that have been here the longest. No predictor here, except to say that the home field means nothing in this game today.
The “who did they beat” analysis: In the Giant’s 3 previous wins, they beat Washington who was then undefeated, SF, who then was 4-3, and Minnesota, who then was 3-3. The Packers beat Carolina, in their first NFC-C game and then beat SF, who at that time was 5-6 in these games. Predictor: Giants.
This is all statistical, but its had about a 70% accuracy rating over the last few years even though the number of predictors varied with the year. Had I done this earlier today, I would have called the predictors as a win for the Giants. The analysis can still be done after the game, though, its just that I give up whatever perceived brilliance there is for getting a prediction right! Oh, well. Proof I’m not in this for the glory. Oh, and this isn’t self serving. Next year when I (hopefully) do this analysis again before the game, I can have a record of it this year with this post.
At any rate, Dallas is still the king of NFC-C games with 8 wins and 14 appearances. But the Giants are the only undefeated team at 4-0. Washington is close at 5-1. Everyone else is either .500 or losing. This doesn’t mean much except to not bet against the NFC East power (Dallas, Giants, Wash) elite in these games. Washington’s only loss was to the Giants, and Dallas, of their 6 losses, 2 were to the Redskins and 1 was to the East also ran, Philly.
Fun stuff.