I disagree with your analysis because of one thing: The media has been mostly on SC. Romney’s win in Nevada was passed off as a fluke due to LDS voters. I suspect that McCain gets a bump in Florida, but I wonder if it will be enough to overtake the efforts by Giuliani to get his voters out early.
“the efforts by Giuliani to get his voters out early.”
This is a factor. Hannity said 40% was in. That may be a little low. Jeb will get the Cubans to vote for his guy.