“If Romney loses Michigan and drops out, who gets his voters?”
Here’s what Rasmussen shows for South Carolina:
“The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows both Huckabee at 28%, John McCain at 21% and Mitt Romney at 15%. In mid-December, Huckabee and Romney were tied for the lead with 23% of the vote while McCain was well off the pace at 12%. The current survey offers disappointing news for Fred Thompson who earns just 11% of the vote, down a point since December. As recently as November, Thompson was tied for the lead in South Carolina.”
If Huckabee wins in S.C., which I think he will, with McCain in 2nd place, then Romney will definitely lose in Michigan. Plus, if Thompson comes in 3rd or lower in S.C. he really should pull out of the race and will.
I think Thompson will endorse his longtime friend McCain, or not endorse anyone at all. Thompson voters will be really sullen and mad for awhile and then I think the social conservatives that are with him will mostly gravitate to Huckabee. The other types will go primarily to McCain with some to Guiliani.
Romney will be total toast after Michigan and should pull out, and probably will. He won’t endorse anyone...he hates them all and they equally despise him.
Now to the answer about Romney’s supporters. Those that are primarily religious/moral voters will go to Huckabee (except for the mormon & mormophile ones that would vote for anyone but Huckabee). The other types will go to McCain mainly. Some will actually go to Guiliani.
So, whether it be Fred or Mitt that drop out (and they both will), McCain will benefit from the fiscal types and Huckabee from the social types.
Huckabee will do better than McCain in Florida, but McCain will do better than Huckabee in Michigan. They will be pretty even by Super Tuesday with McCain seen as front runner.
On Super Tuesday, Guiliani will pull some NE states but McCain will take CA. Huckabee will do well in the Southern states. When the smoke clears, McCain will be ahead and win the GOP nomination, and he will pick Huckabee to be his VP to keep morals/values voters with the GOP.
Of course, it is always possible that Fred will come from behind in S.C. and give us a viable candidate to compete with Huckabee in the South, but don’t count on it. I think he is running out of air.
Another scenario that is possible would be for Huckabee to do better on Super Tuesday than I anticipate. If so, the Huckaboom could lead to him being the GOP nominee. However, I would say that he has earned a VP slot, and nothing higher at this time.
I’m remembering (by replying) you said that. The only upside I see from your analysis (hope you’re wrong) is that instead of contributing I’ll be buying firepower, food and meds later this year.
FWIW - I think a lot of Thompson supporters would rather cut off their hand than vote for McCain...I know I would. But I feel the same about Huckabee.
Thompson isn’t somebody you choose because you’ve always loved Fred. He’s only has a shot at all because so many of us dislike our other options. He’s the last resort candidate.
Huckabee or McCain - I vote for congresscritters and look forward to 2012.
Mitt or Rudy - I do a lot of soul-searching, but would probably drag myself to the voting booth and vote against Hillary/Obama...but I don’t bring anyone with me.
Hate to say it, but I think we’re looking at a 55:45 Democrat win in 2008.