In your scenario, I see Fred Thompson picking Mitt Romney as Vice President (just as George H.W. Bush was to Ronald Reagan) which will give Romney 4-8 years to prove his conservative bona fides to the GOP, and help fund the general election campaign.The only problem with that is by being chosen for VP in the Reagan administration, GHWB was falsely blanketed with the appearance of conservatism, which he only later disproved as President. I'm not saying that Romney would do the same, but perhaps he would make a better Secretary of Commerce.
Romney is damaged goods. Only ego and a large wallet will keep him in the race.
I’ve been researching the GOP brokered convention a bit, and I have really good news to share.
Just about all of the changes to the primary calendar make a brokered convention more likely, and Giuliani’s strategy in particular, pretty much impossible. Firstly, candidates had previously counted on a winnowing of the field before large states like California, Florida, and New York voted in order to secure enough votes for the convention. But this time there will be 5 viable candidate all gunning for those votes early. This much we already know. But now let’s examine Rudy’s strategy in particular. It is downright stupid, given the circumstances.
Florida, the first delegate-rich state was stripped of half of its delegates as punishment for moving up so early. So Rudy is going for a state that HAD a lot of delegates, but will in fact have less delegates than Missouri, Georgia, or Michigan now. Further complicating things, Florida, California and New York all have a district by district winner take all delegate awarding system. So Giuliani will have to share the bulk of these states’ delegate treasure trove with 4 other viable candidates. Fred Thompson is likely to garner the most outside of the metropolitan areas. So Giuliani will likely be walking away with only half or less of the delegates from the large states. What this all means is the race for the nomination will essentially be county by county, not state by state winner take all, and will be split by way too many candidates for anyone to come anywhere near the count needed. It was hard enough under the old system where it came down to only two candidates pretty early. The GOP field is just not going to break down any further because of the strategies and personalities and closeness of the whole thing.
A brokered convention is surely coming. Looking at the data, I can really see nothing that can prevent that. If enough candidates stay determined and don’t drop out until early March, then a brokered convention will be a done deal.
My advice right now for everyone who doesn’t want Giuliani or Huckabee — whether you’re for Fred or Mitt or even Duncan Hunter, is to encourage your candidate — and ALL candidates — to stay in the race until the end. Donate to ALL of them, keep every campaign as viable as we can, — yes even John McCain (but not Giuliani or Huckabee).
What do we get out of it? First of all, we get the cloak of mystery and the element of surprise protecting our nominee until just two months before the election, while the unarmed Democrat nominee is exposed to attack through the spring, summer, and into the fall. And secondly, we get a second chance at the convention for our candidate who may otherwise not make the final cut. This is the only scenario that candidate like Duncan Hunter has any chance at all. It could happen for him. Not very likely, but at least his chances go from impossible to improbable.
For both Mitt and Fred supporters, we all believe in our guy. The Republican convention will surely pick the Republicaniest candidate, and we all believe that is our guy. So lets all step up to the challenge, and may the best man win.