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I have been a political junkie for more than 30 years, even before I was old enough to vote. Starting a campaign nearly 2 years prior to the vote is starting far too early in my opinion.

I’m not talking about discussing said campaign, starting that nearly 4 years prior to the vote is a bit much, I’m talking about starting the campaign.

BTW - not all are leading him, nor are all those leading doing so significantly. Polls are actually useless at this stage of the game.

I have been a political junkie just as long. The fact is, this is not JFK vs. Nixon. Politics today is much different than just 10 years ago, especially because so many states moved up their primaries. Just 25 years ago, conventions actually STILL determined candidates. Not so. Now, both parties usually have their candidate locked up by March. So the old rules no longer apply. But the fact is, if Mitt wins the first four states, he'll be tough to derail; and if no one sweeps two of the first four, Rudy will be in very, very good shape.

Fred currently is in the worst shape of the top five candidates. He absolutely has to win SC and come in no worse than 3rd in two of the remaining states, because once you get to Super Tues then the next few primaries, if he hasn't shown he can win by then, people will (quite naturally, IMHO) think they have to go with a viable candidate. Rudy is the only one who doesn't have to win any of the first four, and can even come in 3rd in 3 or all 4 of them and still be in good shape.