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To: Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus

That is what is so cool. That may well happen.


141 posted on 01/02/2008 10:13:15 AM PST by ejonesie22 (In America all people have a right to be wrong, some just exercise it a bit much...)
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To: ejonesie22
That is what is so cool. That may well happen.

I hope it does, though I am actually beginning to agree that Fred got in too late. I know, I know, I don't like the fact that moving up the primaries cramps the season, and I agree that somebody shouldn't have to announce they are running three years in advance just to have a shot of winning, but the fact remains - the rest were campaigning, spending, and getting their message (or something like a "message") out for months, and Fred will have a bear of a time scrabbling to overcome that.

The way I figure it, there are three major "factions" in the GOP - the SoCons, the FisCons, and the DefCons - and each already has a standard-bearer staked out.

The SoCons, Social Conservatives. These are the folks for whom social issues are the major concern. Abortion, gay marriage, degradation of the culture, ENDA, and the like (they would share gun control and illegal immigration with the DefCons). They are likely to be conservative in other areas, but some tend to be economically populist. These folks are largely in Huckabee's camp, at least for now.

The FisCons, Fiscal Conservatives. These are the people who worry most about economic issues like trade, taxes, regulation, health care and education spending, etc. Some of them tend to share law-and-order concerns with the DefCons, but many of them are also likely to not get worked up about illegal immigration, since it's "good for business". Many of them tend to be socially libertarian, and hence have a hard time working with the SoCons. These folks are largely in Romney's pocket, for now.

The DefCons, Defence Conservatives. These folks are primarily concerned with issues like military spending, national defence, the GWOT, and law-and-order. They also share issues like opposition to illegal immigration and gun control with the SoCons. These folks are basically divided - the socially conservative ones tend towards McCain (many on FR would be surprised how well McCain polls with active duty military personnel), while the socially liberal ones lean to Giuliani. Hunter also manages to snag a few of the socially conservative DefCons, but these amount to just a few diehards like pissant.

So, the problem for Fred is that, while he OUGHT to be the consensus candidate, since he has things which should greatly appeal to all three factions - because the factions have already chosen their preferred candidates to a great degree, Fred is in the position of a fourth dog trying to break in and grab a steak from a three-way dogfight already in progress.

I like Fred because I tend to be a balance between the three factions, though leaning SoCon. I have a feeling that a lot of other FReepers who support Fred are the same way - a balanced lot, though individually leaning toward(though not tipped over to) one of the three legs of the party.

A Huckaburst would be ideal - the SoCons (who are probably the largest faction of the committed, caucus-going and primary-voting membership of the party) should naturally flow back to Fred, since they finally realised that Giuliani was not their white knight. If McCain fails to get traction after his win in NH, I consider it likely that he'll eventually throw his support to Fred, his old buddy and Senate colleague. That should allow Fred to overcome Mitt.

178 posted on 01/02/2008 10:49:46 AM PST by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (Fred Head and proud of it! Fear the Fred!)
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