Here are the statepoll numbers with Bloomberg in the race:
http://www.surveyusa.com/3WayMBwheel062007
New Polls Show Bloomberg Candidacy Would Flip More States To Blue
By Eric Kleefeld - June 20, 2007, 5:18PM
A new batch of polls just out from SurveyUSA provides us with the first detailed snapshot we have yet of the state-by-state effect a Bloomberg candidacy would have on the 2008 Presidential race.
Bottom line: Bloomberg’s impact depends entirely on who the Dem and GOP nominees are, but it’s clear that in more cases, his entry actually flips the states from red to blue than the other way around.
First, what I see in those results is that some states have an issue with Romney. The scenario in several of those flips is specific to Romney.
Second, How many of these people actually know of Bloomberg’s actual positions in the past, vs. what they think he stands for?
That’s the wildcard here, IMO: what the GOP does to define Bloomberg. Telling people “just the facts” about Bloomberg could go a long way towards changing who is voting for him. I simply cannot believe that many people outside the northeast know what Bloomberg’s actual positions are. For example, the flip on Missouri — I think that would change if the NRA starts telling people what Bloomie’s position on guns is.
Good God, I didn’t know Romney was that weak.
This polling is irrelevant. There isn’t a state there where all three candidates have had major exposure - except the NY scenario where you have Rudy/Hillary/Bloom - and there, it tilts the race to Rudy.
When the campaigns start and the Republicans point out on how socially liberal Bloomberg is, and how ardent proponent of gun-grabber he is, the dynamic may change completely. Not to mention his position on immigration.