I am no fan of McCain but he will come in no lower than third in Iowa.
That will be viewed as a victory and he will do very well in NH and SC.
If he finishes third in Iowa, Fred Thompson is in deep doo doo.
McCain will do well in NH, I think, and he might even beat Romney.
South Carolina is a puzzle to me. I don’t have a good appreciation for who the electorate is, and how easily they are influenced. Geogrpahically, I’d think it would be a good state for Thompson, but if he’s on the ropes after New Hampshire, I really don’t have a guess.