Posted on 12/20/2007 6:27:00 PM PST by NormsRevenge
LOS ANGELES (Map, News) - Mars could be in for an asteroid hit.
A newly discovered hunk of space rock has a 1 in 75 chance of slamming into the Red Planet on Jan. 30, scientists said Thursday.
"These odds are extremely unusual. We frequently work with really long odds when we track ... threatening asteroids," said Steve Chesley, an astronomer with the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
The asteroid, known as 2007 WD5, was discovered in late November and is similar in size to the Tunguska object that hit remote central Siberia in 1908, unleashing energy equivalent to a 15-megaton nuclear bomb that wiped out 60 million trees.
Scientists tracking the asteroid, which is halfway to Mars, initially put the odds of impact at 1 in 350 and increased the chances this week after analyzing the data. Scientists expect the odds to diminish again early next month after getting new observations of the asteroid's orbit, Chesley said.
"We know that it's going to fly by Mars and most likely going to miss, but there's a possibility of an impact," he said.
If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it'll likely aim near the equator close to where the rover Opportunity has been exploring the Martian plains since 2004. The robot is not in danger because it lies outside the impact zone. Speeding at 8 miles a second, a collision would carve a hole the size of the famed Meteor Crater in Arizona.
In 2004, fragments of the comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 smacked into Jupiter, creating a series of overlapping fireballs in space. Astronomers have yet to witness an asteroid impact with another planet.
"Unlike an Earth impact, we're not afraid, but we're excited," Chesley said.
Heck of a way to take out a rover but it would be worth it.
Wow, that’d be pretty sweet, and an incredible scientific opportunity.
asteroid meteorites comets craters meteor showers animations movies etc
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/images/
the animations are pretty good.
Oh yeah.
comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 smacking into Jupiter was pretty cool.. this would leave a heck of a dent were it to hit.
we have enough stuff observing Mars, we would get some good data and images as well, after the dust cleared..
Much easier than shipping a backhoe to Mars, that’s for sure. Perhaps it would excavate a strata of ice.
excavate a strata of ice.
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we should be so lucky.
seeing into the depths of Mars on the cheap,, I’ll take it.
Halfway to Mars from where? Oh, it's an AP article, agenda trumps reporting ability, nevermind.
That’ll be a hell of a carbon footprint.
Would take a while to calculate its trajectory after the gravity of mars influences its path. It may never pass it again.
Does algorejr have anything to do with this?
If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it will probably hit near the equator close to where the rover Opportunity has been exploring the Martian plains since 2004. The robot is not in danger because it lies outside the impact zone.
If they can't even say it will hit (75 to one?) how can they possibly say the rover is outside the impact zone if it does? I mean, the odds are good that it is, since the 'zone' is currently larger than the entire planet, but come on.
Good point. I'd love someone to explain this.
When it does happen, I hope my kinfolk are on the Moon, Mars or trekking out to the stars rather than dying like the kinfolk of you money saving pudknockers!
I think what it pertains to is uncertainties in the measurement of the orbit of the asteroid. Asteroids are very, very hard to see in the sky, and sometimes only a handful of observations are available to extrapolate the path of the asteroid. And I think that there can be several different orbital paths - maybe 75? - that would fit those limited set of observations.
But the orbital path that fits all the existing observations of the asteroid’s position, AND which includes the surface of Mars, allows them to get a bead on when and where the asteroid would hit if it were to do so.
Halfway to Mars from where?
You’re just begging for an “Uranus” joke!
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