Posted on 12/05/2007 10:04:36 AM PST by rightinthemiddle
Yes, I suspect that it is the johnny-one-note posts that finally went too far.
I mostly lurk on these economy threads because I’m here more to learn than to contribute my own ignorance. But it did become clear to me that Hydroshock (and perhaps a few others) could see things only in doom and gloom terms. It can become an agenda, to spread doom and gloom. Surely some do it because they are genuinely concerned and want to warn others, but some may do it to sow disorder.
I would have “taken more stock” in his posts (and those of a few others) had he drawn attention to some of the data that did not necessarily support his main ideas.
We're doomed...........
Its always worth a laugh to review the ‘dire predictions’.
Then you ask yourself a question....given the horrible track record of these so called ‘economic experts’ how is it they are still EMPLOYED?
Its one thing when a internut posts this stuff, but the fact the MSM keeps them on the job....wow.
The Saint Paul Pioneer Press frontpaged a story last Sunday about the state's "desperate" middle class. Featured in the article was a "sad" tale about a woman who had lost her high-paying assembly job at Anderson Windows. The writer of the article detailed how tough things had become for the woman. Missing in the analysis was the fact that the unfortunate woman had almost immediately found another job. Not as high paying, but one that paid the bills. In fact Minnesota's unemployment rate was never mentioned. I believe it's around four percent.
The writer also bemoaned the tragic situation of the state's middle class who are truly suffering under the nasty Bush administration. The writer did not say the last phrase, but it was not hard to detect what she was trying to say: America's middle class is in desperate straits, and only a Democrat admin featuring high taxes could fix the problem.
Oh yeah, that old taxing ourselves into prosperity trick, works oh so well.
Intresting bit of proof for that. Last year it was all about gas prices all the time. Even when the price dropped, the MSM spent all their time gasing about how it was Bush's oil buddies trying to protect the Republican majority. This year the average price of a gallon of gas prices has been much higher for pretty much the whole year and yet now it is a non story in the MSM
What happened between then and now? The Democrats took back control of Congress.
That is a strategy of the left to claim the economy has been awful for years. Well, it still isn’t truth but I am highly concerned. Consumers still had disposable income and kept spending strong but consider the source: Easy credit. That has stopped.
For example, I have had a five year relationship with two banks. One for business and one for personal. The business bank reniged in July on increasing my LOC, despite management reaching our bookings the banks stated as a requirement back in January for the LOC increase. Now I am $100k cash shortage. Management fixes this problem largely by not taking payroll. I rob Peter to pay Paul on my personal finance, keeping all payments within 30 days of due to preserve my credit rating. I ask my personal bank to increase my credit card to $10k so I can take a payroll. They tell me no, despite 5 years of payments on time, never a late payment until this year. I am but one of many upper middle class Americans with similar problems facing increased cost of living and stagnant wages. As a business owner I did what you and other posters would probably suggest, increase my personal income. I did that by working 15 hours a day and have stabalized the situation. Bear in mind, I was fiscally responsible these years. How many middle class Americans overspent on credit and are now shut off with these similar set of circumstances and no where to go? Consumer confidence is showing sharp declines, similar to conditions after 911. The economy is being band-aided with stimulus coming from the Fed and restructuring of home loans through the Central Banks. This is not unusual during POTUS election seasons.
All that said, I am not ‘doom and gloom’. However, if energy and trickle down effects do not change, I see recession is 2009 and not a pretty one. Let me add if we see another WMD attack during this time it is going to be beyond painful for America as a whole, minus the top 5% that will more or less always stay wealthy at this point.
Are crap, for the price you pay.
Right on! If Hillary wins WH & demorats win congress, it
will be all lilacs and roses in 2010 & 2012.
As for Recessions, there have been 20 recession in the last 100 years. It is a normal part of the business cycle in the US. And this country has recovered every one of them. It is
not the end of the world. Actually a recession kills off
inefficiencies in the system and we come out of stronger.
An assumption with absolutely no evidence to back it up what so ever.
Give the power of incumbency, combined with an almost inevitable reimplementation of the Fairness Doctrine to choke Talk Radio to death plus new "Campaign Finance" laws to make sure Republican challengers to Democrats face unsurmountable funding deficits, a Democrat win of the whole Govt in 2008 will not be reversed in your or mine life time.
It will be the end of the American Republic as we know it and the start of European style socialist style Govt here in the USA.
I am reminded of the fall of 1999. The economic guru’s were all advising that worries abut overvalued tech stocks were way overblown. The market was going up and down in big spikes over pretty trivial economic news. When Reno went after Microsoft in March of 2000, the balloon broke ad the nudity of the emperor was apparent to all.
The possible minor rate cut has been all the real news over the last week yet the markets are spiking on it...what happens when the cut comes, the mortgage and credit fundamentals are unchanged? What is next?
Why is it EVERY time one of the Doom and Gloom crowds forecasts turns out to be wholly wrong, they simply manufacture a new supposed coming crises to scream about?
You doom and gloomers are NEVER right. Why in the world should any of us take you seriously have 7 years of completely erroneous predictions?
Is the thinking among the Chicken Little's that if they just keep predicting disaster that one day they will luck out and be right?
“I see. We should just ignore the hard data so the Doom and Gloom Freeper choir can sing about some new hypothetical “what ifs& scenario based on a wholly imagined coming crisis?
Why is it EVERY time one of the Doom and Gloom crowds forecasts turns out to be wholly wrong, they simply manufacture a new supposed coming crises to scream about?
You doom and gloomers are NEVER right. Why in the world should any of us take you seriously have 7 years of completely erroneous predictions?
Is the thinking among the Chicken Little’s that if they just keep predicting disaster that one day they will luck out and be right?”
Your ‘hard data” is very selective....it sort of forgets the 10% drop in the dollar,the doubling of furclosures this year, the $1 TRILLION in bad mortgage debt, etc...
Here is a prime example of ‘irrational exuberance”...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6kfa.n46Obo&refer=home
The plan only covers about 30% of the bad debt and screws share holders in the companies who are not getting the return on their investment they deserve....
What is next?
You do realize the market caps of financials have exceeded over 1t in losses. How much more it gotta go for you? Trillion dollars buys lots of regret don’t it?
Not that I’m saying financials deserve to go up, yet. But, the downdraft of financials have taken down some other industries that are very sound, have strong fundamentals.
The boogey man will only scare the public, institutions for so long you know...
Better than not having an investment left although I generally agree the gov’t should leave the market alone. The plan can easily be done without the government.
Mortgage applications this week hit a 10-year high.
10% drop of the dollar has been good to the US Economy. It’s also not down 10% to the currencies that really matter to our trade (Yuan & Yen). If the $ stays this low for several years (which I do not expect it to), the US trade deficit will disappear and exports will continue to boom at double digit rates (like it has for the last 5 years). The foreclosure rate is still really low. I don’t think we’ll see $1 trillion in bad debt. They may have that much in write downs when all is said and done but that is because many of the financials are strapped for cash and selling well below real value (eg. etrade selling mortgage backed securities for 13 cents on the dollar).
I think my post to which you answered is not very clear.
What I was trying to say is that the MSM will portray
economy as lilacs & roses if demorats win in 2008 and 2010.
And I agree we will turn more and more socialist under
demorats, ans socialism has failed everywhere it is tried
in reference to prosperity for the general public.
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