When you say, "Toddster would argue that the Fed doesn’t set rates, the market does. True to an extent;"
What you're saying is that my argument is false to an extent. So, you're saying that the Fed does set rates. So what did they set the 10 Year rate at today?
Or were you wrong? The market does set rates?
The market set the 10 year rate today. The markets also set the shorter term rates today. However, over the past 6 months the market has dropped 6 month and shorter rates (now the lowest in 2 years). Obviously ups and downs, not monotonic. The reason they have dropped is anticipation of lower Fed target rates.
Why would anyone borrow money for 6 months at 5% when they can borrow short term for less in anticipation that future short term borrowing will be even less?