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To: Graybeard58

Bad news for the “peak oil” crowd.


55 posted on 12/02/2007 2:30:53 PM PST by colorado tanker
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To: colorado tanker
"Bad news for the “peak oil” crowd."

If you mean those who are worried about the near term ... well not really. First of all, only a real nut would be cheering for the near term end of oil in the form of a near term rapid decline in extraction capability. These sorts of nuts exist, but they are not representative of those of us who are worried.

Beyond that, if there are 8 billion barrels of recoverable oil in this discovery, the standard version of the peak oil theory ["Hubbert Linearization" although it wasn't really M. King Hubbert's thing] would conclude that this discovery would push back the date of peak oil by about two months. This is a very simplified computation as all peak oil models assumes that new discoveries will occur and makes allowances for some level of new discoveries. If this discovery fits within the existing ultimate recoverable reserves "URR" estimate for a particular model [it should -- it is not another Ghawar] the conclusion would be that that this find has no impact on the date of the peak.

A change in the trend of discoveries, e.g. a bunch of these sorts of discoveries per year for several years or another Ghawar or two would be required to significantly change the assumed world URR and therefore the date of the peak. I am hopeful that the discovery curve will change, but much more hopeful that the peak is a few years away and that post peak decline can be moderated by managing the decline and bringing on other forms of energy.

58 posted on 12/02/2007 4:03:39 PM PST by R W Reactionairy ("Everyone is entitled to their own opinion ... but not to their own facts" Daniel Patrick Moynihan)
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To: colorado tanker

This find would have to be repeated five times a year to put off the peak indefinitely. Once a year or once in five years won’t get it done. The peak is here, now. A misconception is that at the peak, oil production will suddenly fall, but this obviously can’t happen. Instead the peak will be broad and production might not decline much at all for a few years.


59 posted on 12/02/2007 4:10:40 PM PST by RightWhale (anti-razors are pro-life)
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