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To: thackney
Your link did not work.

What did I write that was not true?

Before you answer, please read my post about reserves and the rate of extraction. It is the rate of extraction which defines a peak not the reserves in the ground.

Also, read my post about the various types of reserves, and reserve growth. Believe the reserve numbers in the North Sea, and the U.S. and anywhere else western oil companies have been involved as the operators recently. Believe the Gulf States, Iran and Russia if you like, but they lack credibility. Faith is a fine thing in religion, but it is no way to evaluate our energy supplies.

Also, when analyzing EIA numbers, try to sort out unconventional reserves like tar sands from crude oil. They are only equivalent in the sense that they can be refined into similar products. Extraction rates and the costs of inputs differ enormously.

Please research new discoveries [plenty of data out there.] I’ll recap some of the high points: U.S. Discoveries peaked in the late 1930s. U.S. Production peaked in IIRC 1971. World discoveries peaked in IIRC 1969. World production of crude and lease condensate peaked [for now] in 2005.

We could see a further leg up but two years of stagnant production in the face of higher prices may be telling us something.

BTW, if the message is that those that have the oil are somehow engaged in a conspiracy to withhold it, there is a clear an element of truth in that. OPEC is after all a cartel and manipulating markets is what cartels do. When doing so, recognize that even if that is the root cause [for the sake of argument -- I don't believe that this is the root case of recent price action], it is not reasonable to expect relief because the non OPEC world isn't finding enough lower cost of production sources to bring prices back to previous levels.

44 posted on 12/02/2007 11:58:50 AM PST by R W Reactionairy ("Everyone is entitled to their own opinion ... but not to their own facts" Daniel Patrick Moynihan)
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To: R W Reactionairy
What did I write that was not true?

less oil has been found than has been used each year for more than a decade

Reserves have grown in the last decade after supplying the increasing demand. Reserves have grown because more oil has been added to the reserves than has been used.

Your link did not work.

Sorry about that, go here:

International Petroleum (Oil) Reserves and Resources
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilreserves.html

And select "January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2007 Estimates"

when analyzing EIA numbers, try to sort out unconventional reserves like tar sands from crude oil. They are only equivalent in the sense that they can be refined into similar products. Extraction rates and the costs of inputs differ enormously.

Extraction rates and cost differ greatly from West Texas to the Arctic and deep water gulf. That is no reason not to count the reserves. If you only want to talk about cheap, easy oil, sure that rate is going down. But that is selecting artificial criteria when the product still goes to refineries and runs in my truck.

But even if you ignore the 175 billion barrels that was finally added to Canada's reserves in 2003, there still is greater reserves in the world over the past decade in spite of meeting the growing demand.

65 posted on 12/02/2007 5:28:00 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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