Sir, you are very insightful...or just speaking a truth the socons don't think about much. This party is SPLIT, and if the GOP nominates another school prayer, constitutional abortion ban, constitutional gay marriage ban social conservative...more will leave this party than will leave if a social liberal/federalist is nominated.
Be assured, the old coalition is over.
I believe the ONLY hope to hold together this very, very fragile coalition is to nominate a federalist that is "personally" opposed to abortion, gay marriage and the like...but will NOT advocate for Federal Power to enable the socons to prevail.
If someone to the right of that position on social issues is nominated, millions will leave. Perhaps 10's of millions.
How about Fred Thompson?