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If there is no money printing, how does currency in circulation and the monetary base increase over time?

Yes, the Fed increases the money supply. Do you agree that “The real problem with the US$ as a reserve currency is that whenever the US government has been running a bit short it just prints some more”?

Yes, the Fed increases the money supply.

If you know that, then take all the facts together and arrive at the logical conclusion. It isn't hard:

1) The fed prints all the new money. The fed continuously prints new money.

2) The fed never decreases the money supply on a net basis (over the long run)

3) The banking system expands credit on top of the monetary base created by the fed by through fractional reserve lending. Banks do not ever decrease the supply of credit except when forced to temporarily by "the business cycle" - this is happening right now.

4) The US Government borrows money. It always increases its debt on a net basis. It has no intention of ever paying it off.

5) It does not matter if the US government borrows money directly from the FED (e.g. open market ops), directly from the commercial banking system (carry trade), or directly from the public. It only matters that it keeps borrowing at an increasing rate. If all the new money comes from the Fed and the banking system, and the US government always increases its borrowing (debt), then the ultimate source that allows all that borrowing is the fed and the banking system.

The concept of using the $US as the world's reserve currency is flawed. It is flawed for the reasons above, and many others. The current system where the $US is the world reserve currency has only been around since 1971, and since 1944 before that. It's not proven by any means, and is unlikely to last much longer.

The dollar is falling because it is losing its status as the 1 and only reserve currency. It will probably continue to decline from here and bottom in the 50-65 range. You're seeing this as higher food, energy, gold, etc prices.