Futures markets are trailing indicators, and thin markets like these are especially prone to manipulation.
***Then go ahead and manipulate it. It’s been tried, by someone who was pushing down GWB’s contracts at SportsTrade. It failed.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
That manipulation was attempted after the conventions and the Labor Day start of the final campaign, when there were two contracts.
Just because I have no desire to manipulate the markets is not proof that it cannot be done. Big fallacy there. Huge.