Big deal — they’re just showing what the media is telling them.
***Wrong on that one. Intrade showed Fred plummeting before it started showing up in the polls. Intrade showed Ron Paul rising before it showed up in the polls. It now shows Huckabee, um, maybe topping out.
When Thompson starts his rebound, his “stock” will jump accordingly.
***Good to know.
The “futures” market is much more volatile than surveys of likely voters, because they are totally subject to perception.
***And yet, they are better predictors of outcomes than polls.
However, those same “futures” markets do tell us that Hunter is not only perceived as a massive longshot, but that he’s also stagnant in that position (no change since July).
***Ahah. Does that mean you now accept what the Futures market has to say? It’s good data when it shows Hunter at 0.1% but bad data when it shows Fred at 6%? That means Fred IS at 6%, which is what I’ve been saying. He’s lost a lot of ground. Hunter hasn’t lost any, hasn’t gained any.
I know you want to believe otherwise, but just $10 will buy you 100 shares of Hunter. Put your money where your mouth is and see if you can ever sell those shares for a profit.
***I hope to do so.
It does not mean that, and what you've been saying is wrong.
All it means is that the Intrade contract is priced at 6 (which I believe is actually 60 cents).