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<...so I can bet the other way.>

Lots of folks are gearing up to do so. If that is the case, the end is going to be quick, swift, just like the financial stock collapse. Just curious, what kind of sell signal would you look for, so you’re not the last guy out?

Above, I wrote something that ties in with your comment. The other side of the trade, whether it is gold, oil, euro, cdn, etc.... is the dollar, or the us equity market is it not?

The crash of international markets in 93/94, in Europe, Asia, and Latin america was all about currency. The currencies of those countries again, are nearing/above those previous highs. I suspect the tide turns soon.

Somewhere in this, is a 50k trade, that turns into 1m.

For anyone that agrees with my thoughts, would love to hear your ideas on what that trade might be, and maybe more important, when.

Good questions and I wish I had good answers. Oil is particularly scary because we've already seen $10-15 bbl price drops that might have indicated a trend reversal but actually didn't. With the dollar, one would think the Fed raising rates would do it, but they were raising rates all throughout the beginning of the dollar descent and it never even slowed the drop. Even today, interest rates in Europe are lower, which should be bullish for the dollar but somehow isn't.

But to try and answer your question about exit points, I guess as long as oil goes up and up, and people continue to pay increasingly higher prices of gas, continue to buy gas guzzling vehicles as what I can see, continue to buy increasingly expensive fancy imports...and yet through all of this the economy is still expanding, I see it as bullish for the current trend. The trade outlook is only now starting to correct itself in the form of dropping deficits, and that along with the dropping budget deficit should allow reality to kick in but when that happens I have no idea.