$20-$25 of the $96 barrel oil price is hedging, specualation and manipulation. Another significant portion if dollar devaluation. Another component is shortages due to poor management of oilfields in Venezuela (recently privatized and now devoid of foreign expertise) and in Kenya. OPEC is not meeting its cap production quotas due to mismanagement, much less exceeding them through traditional backdoor deals by member states.
The pricing we’re seeing now is not sustainable and is in many ways symptomatic of something other than sheer force of demand.
China’s economy is going inflationary due to energy prices and being pegged to the dollar and the US, when you subtract the effects of military and home equity spending, is going very recessionary. The true effect of the housing collapse is the pinch on equity credit lines, which have fueled most GDP growth over the past few years. Add in increased fuel costs, and commodities that have shown exponential growth and you have the makings of a perfect storm. Anecdotal evidence aside, this economy is scary from my perspective - as a marketer of discretionary/leisure/entertainment goods.