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Michael Behe explains the impossibility of evolution:

Q. And let me just ask you a few questions, and you tell me if I’m fairly summarizing the results of your computer simulation. What you’re asking is, how long will it take to get — and please follow with me, I’m trying to do this slowly and methodically — two or more specific mutations, in specific locations, in a specific gene, in a specific population, if the function is not able to be acted on by natural selection until all the mutations are in place, if the only form of mutation is point mutation, and the population of organisms is asexual?
A. I would have to look at that statement closely because there are so many different aspects to it that I don’t trust myself to sit here and listen to you say that and form a correct judgment.
Q. Anything I said about that sound incorrect?
A. If you repeat it again, I’ll try.
Q. I’d be happy to. Two or more specific mutations?
A. Actually, this dealt with one or more.
Q. One or more mutations?
A. Yes. If you notice, in figure — if you notice in figure 3, you look at the x axis, you notice that there are data points there that start at one. So we considered models where there were one, two, and more mutations.
Q. Fair enough. In specific locations?
A. No, that’s not correct. We assumed that there were several locations in the gene that could undergo these selectable mutations, but we did not designate where they were.
Q. In the specific gene?
A. We were considering one gene, yes.
Q. In a specific population?
A. Yes.
Q. Okay. If the function is not able to be acted on by natural selection until all mutations are in place?
A. Yes, that’s what’s meant by multiple amino acid residue, multi-residue feature, yes.
Q. If the only form of mutation is point mutation?
A. Yes, that’s a very common type of mutation, which is probably half or more of the mutations that occur in an organism.
Q. And if the population of organisms is asexual?
A. Yes, we did not — actually, we did not confine it just to asexuals, but we did not consider recombination.
Q. Are prokaryotes an example of the kind of organism that you were studying there?
A. Again, we weren’t studying organisms, but, yeah, they’re a good example of what such a model has in mind.
Q. And to say this very colloquially, you conclude that it will take a large population a long time to evolve a particular function at disulfide bond, right?
A. A multi-residue feature. That’s correct, that’s correct.
Q. And specifically —
A. I’m sorry.
Q. Go ahead.
A. Let me just finish. Depending on — as we emphasize in the paper, it depends on the population size. And, of course, prokaryotes can oftentimes grow to very large population sizes.
Q. And here the conclusion, the calculations you concluded was that, if you had a population of 10 to the 9th power, that’s a population of 1 billion?
A. That’s correct.
Q. To produce a novel protein feature through the kind of multiple point mutations you’re talking about, it would take 10 to the 8th generations, that’s what it says in the abstract, correct?
A. If, in fact, it was — if, in fact, the intermediate states were not selectable.
Q. Okay.
A. And if this is by gene duplication as well.
Q. Okay. So 10 to the 8th generation, that’s 100 million generations?
A. That’s correct.
Q. And yesterday, you explained about bacteria, that 10,000 generations would take about two years in the laboratory, correct?
A. Yes.
Q. So 100 million generations, that would take about 20,000 years?
A. I’m sorry?
Q. 100 million generations, which is what you calculated here, that would take about 20,000 years?
A. Okay, yes.
Q. And those are numbers based on your probability calculations in this model, correct?
A. Yes.
Q. Now it would be true that, if you waited a little longer, say, instead of 10 to 9th generations, 10 to the 10th generations, then it would mean that you wouldn’t need as big a population to get the function that you are studying?
A. That’s right. The more chances you have, the more likely you are to develop a feature. And the chances are affected by the number of organisms. So if you have a smaller population time, and more generations, that could be essentially equal to a larger population size and fewer generations.
Q. So, as you said, so if we get more time, we need less population to get to the same point, and if we had more population, less time?
A. That’s correct, yes.
Q. Now would you agree that this model has some limitations?
A. Sure.
Q. And you, in fact, were quite candid in indicating that in the paper?
A. That’s correct.
Q. And if we could turn to, what I believe is, page 8 of the document. And if you look in the paragraph that’s actually continued from the previous page that says, we strongly emphasize. And if you could —
A. I’m sorry. What page number is that?
Q. It’s page 8 in the document. And it’s up on the screen as well.
A. Yes, okay. I’ve got it.
Q. Could you read into the record the text to the end of the paragraph beginning with, we strongly emphasize?
A. We strongly emphasize that results bearing on the efficiency of this one pathway as a conduit for Darwinian evolution say little or nothing about the efficiency of other possible pathways. Thus, for example, the present study that examines the evolution of MR protein features by point mutation in duplicate genes does not indicate whether evolution of such features by other processes, such as recombination or insertion/deletion mutations, would be more or less efficient.
Q. So it doesn’t include recombination, it doesn’t include insertion/deletion of the mutations?
A. That’s correct.
Q. And those are understood as pathways for Darwinian evolution?
A. They are potential pathways, yes.
Q. This study didn’t involve transposition?
A. No, this focuses on a single gene.
Q. And transpositions are, they are a kind of mutation, is that right?
A. Yes. They can be, yes.
Q. And so that means, this simulation didn’t examine a number of the mechanisms by which evolution actually operates?
A. That is correct, yes.
Q. And this paper, let’s be clear here, doesn’t say anything about intelligent design?
A. Yes, that’s correct. It does imply irreducible complexity but not intelligent design.
Q. But it doesn’t say it?
A. That’s correct.
Q. And one last other question on your paper. You concluded, it would take a population size of 10 to the 9th, I think we said that was a billion, 10 to the 8th generations to evolve this new disulfide bond, that was your conclusion?
A. That was the calculation based on the assumptions in the paper, yes.
MR. ROTHSCHILD: May I approach the witness, Your Honor?
THE COURT: You may.
BY MR. ROTHSCHILD:
Q. What I’ve marked as Exhibit P-756 is an article in the journal Science called Exploring Micro—
A. Microbial.
Q. Thank you — Diversity, A Vast Below by T.P. Curtis and W.T. Sloan?
A. Yes, that seems to be it.
Q. In that first paragraph, he says, There are more than 10 to the 16 prokaryotes in a ton of soil. Is that correct, in that first paragraph?
A. Yes, that’s right.
Q. In one ton of soil?
A. That’s correct.
Q. And we have a lot more than one ton of soil on Earth, correct?
A. Yes, we do.
Q. And have for some time, correct?
A. That’s correct, yes.
Q. And, in fact, he gives us a good way of comparing it. It says, as compared to a mere 10 to the 11th stars in our galaxy?
A. Yes, that’s what he writes, uh-huh.
Q. And 10 to the 16th prokaryotes is 7 orders of magnitude higher than the population you included in your calculations, correct?
A. No. We considered a wide range of populations, and we considered a wide range of number of substitutions that would be — or point mutations that would be necessary. You’re focusing on two, but perhaps I can direct your attention again to that figure from the paper — excuse me. Let me find it.
The best place I think to look is figure 6, which is on page 10 of the document. Up in the upper right-hand corner, that figure there.
Q. Sure.
A. If you look on the bottom, the x axis there, the bottom of the figure that’s labeled lambda, it has the numbers 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and so on, those are the number of point mutations that we consider perhaps some multi-residue feature might entail. As we said in the paper, forming a new disulfide bond might require as few as two point mutations.
But forming other multi-residue features such as protein, protein binding sites might require more. And so the number on the X axis lambda 2, 4, 6, 8, those are the number of point mutations that we entertained or we calculated numbers for to see how long such things would be expected to take under our model.
And if you look up at the top axis, the top x axis labeled N, at the top of the figure. N stands for population size. Okay. So if you look at the figures there on the left, it’s slanted, and it’s not enlarged yet, so it’s hard to see. It says, 10 to the 6th. That’s a million. And then skip a line. These are in every 10 to the 3rd increments of population size. That would be 10 to the 9th.
The next label is 10 to the 12th, which is a trillion. The next label is 10 to the 18th, which is much more. The next label is 10 to the 24th, which is much, much, much more. The next label, 10 to the 30th, which, again, is very much more.
So, in fact, we considered population sizes from 1000 all the way up to 10 to the 30th, and multi-residue features from 2, which might involve disulfide bonds, up to many more, which might be involved in protein, protein binding sites.
Q. 10 to the 30th, that is quite a lot, right?
A. Yes. That’s roughly what is calculated to be the bacterial population of the Earth in any one year. And so over the course of the billion year, 4 billion year history of the Earth, there would probably be a total of roughly 10 to the 40th.
Q. And so in the case of prokaryotes, which you said was a good example of what you were studying, 10 to the 16th in one ton of soil?
A. Yes.
Q. So a few tons of soil, and we’ve gone past that 10 to the 30th?
A. Well, no. In the 10 to the 14th tons of soil. 10 to the 30th is the number that’s in the entire world, according to the best estimates, including the ocean as well as soil. So — but I agree with your point, that there’s a lot of bacteria around and certainly more than 10 to the 9th.
Q. So just with the prokaryotes, 10 to the 16th, 7 orders of magnitude higher than what you were calculating here?
A. That’s certainly true, but in our paper, we had our eye not only on prokaryotes, but also on eukaryotes as well, which, if you leave out recombination, one can — they certainly undergo point mutations. They certainly have genes and so on. So much of this is also applicable to eukaryotes.
And the populations of eukaryotes and certainly larger plants and animals are much, much smaller than populations of bacteria. So we view our results not just as supplying that, but to giving us some feel for what can happen in more complex organisms as well.
Q. Well, you’re not talking about more complex organisms here, are you?
A. I think we do. I think at the end, if I’m not mistaken, if I remember correctly — okay, yes. On page 11, the second full paragraph, on page 11. It begins on the right-hand column, the second full paragraph. It says, The lack of recombination in our model means it is most directly applicable to haploid, asexual organisms. Nonetheless, the results also impinge on the evolution of diploid sexual organisms.
The fact that very large population sizes, 10 to 9th or greater, are required to build even a minimal MR feature requiring two nucleotide alterations within 10 to the 8th generations by the processes described in our model, and that enormous population sizes are required for more complex features or shorter times, seems to indicate that the mechanism of gene duplication and point mutation alone would be ineffective, at least for multicellular diploid species, because few multicellular species reach the required population sizes.
Thus, mechanisms in addition to gene duplication and point mutation may be necessary to explain the development of MR features in multicellular organisms.
So here we were trying to point out that, because of the results of the calculation, it seems that, when we’re trying to explain MR features in multicelled organisms, then we’re going to have to look to other processes for that.
Q. Okay. So if we exclude some of the processes by which we understand evolution to occur, it’s hard to get there for multicellular organisms?
A. I’m sorry.
Q. If we exclude some of the mechanisms by which we understand evolution to occur, like recombination, it’s hard to get there?
A. Yes.
Q. And bringing it back to the prokaryotes. We’re in agreement here, the number of prokaryotes in 1 ton of soil are 7 orders of magnitude higher than the population, you said it would take 10 to the 8th generations to produce the disulfide bond?
A. Yeah, certainly. Yeah, the bacteria are — can grow to very large population sizes.
Q. So the time would be?
A. Much shorter.
Q. Much shorter?
A. Absolutely.