See: http://www.snopes.com/politics/quotes/tyler.asp
See my post 5
You are correct:
DISCLAIMER: There is an e-mail floating around the internet dealing with the 2000 Bush/Gore election, remarks of a Scotish philosopher named Alexander Tyler, etc. Part of it is attributed to me. It is entirely BOGUS as to my authorship. I’ve been trying to kill it for 3 years. For details see:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/quotes/tyler.asp.
From the professor’s Hamline bio.
http://www.hamline.edu/law/professors/joseph_olson.html