Posted on 10/09/2007 8:32:07 PM PDT by Ol' Sparky
Front-runner Rudy Giuliani increasingly claims the mantle of invincibility -- issues, schmissues, he's the only guy who can beat Hillary.
Judging from my recent cocktail party conversations, it's having an impact. But these same conversations reveal how much wishful thinking goes into the myth of Rudy the Invincible.
"I can't believe the American people will vote for that woman and her husband, a philanderer," one wealthy businessman told me.
"Who are you supporting?" I innocently inquired.
"Rudy," he said.
Can you spell "cognitive dissonance"?
Sean Hannity spends hours every afternoon criticizing those in the GOP coalition (such as Dr. James Dobson) who won't vote for Rudy; sure Giuliani may be wrong on gay marriage and abortion, but he'll be much better than Hillary because he'll appoint "strict constructionist" Supreme Court justices, right?More self-delusion. Bucking the tide by appointing judges with sufficient intellectual integrity to overturn Roe v. Wade is very hard. Ronald Reagan wanted to do it, and he got it right only once. Even President Bush put appointing his good friend Harriet Miers ahead of appointing a Sam Alito. Only when the base went ballistic did Bush back down, and only because he really is a conservative who cares about what conservatives think.
Rudy? Here's a safe bet: He will appoint a loyalist crony to the bench. When the base erupts, he'll tell the base where it can stick its objections. That's Rudy.
When he's on your side, you admire how fearlessly he will defend your views. When he's not on your side, he ruthlessly steamrolls over you. And on abortion? Don't kid yourself: Rudy is not on our side.
And the Supreme Court is not the only issue of concern to social conservatives. What will Rudy do if and when a resurgent Democrat majority tries to repeal the Hyde Amendment, which bans federal funding for abortion? Or for that matter overturns the federal definition of marriage in the Defense of Marriage Act? Will Rudy spend his political capital on vetoing either of these? He's made us no promises. Instead, he's counting on widespread self-delusion and cognitive dissonance to carry enough social conservatives to win the nomination.
My question is: What is he counting on afterward? Because, frankly, Rudy's electoral prospects don't look that good.
The once-powerful Reagan coalition had three legs -- strong on defense, less government and social conservatism. But the war in Iraq is not the same as the war on communism. It's very unpopular, and Rudy has become as identified with this unpopular war as John McCain. Meanwhile, he has abandoned social conservatism. What's left of the Reagan coalition for Rudy to run on? Naked fiscal conservatism? Conservatives are deluding themselves if they think fiscal conservatism by itself is a winning political coalition. Do they not remember the party of Gerald Ford? It was very fiscally conservative, socially moderate, and a permanent minority party.
The halo of "America's Mayor" is already slipping. For months, polls showed Rudy Giuliani leading Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head matchup, but by June of this year that lead had begun to evaporate. The latest poll, conducted in late September by ABC News and The Washington Post, shows Hillary Clinton beating Rudy Giuliani by eight points. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney trails Clinton in a head-to-head matchup in the latest Rasmussen poll by only nine points. One point better than Romney does not a convincing argument make for abandoning all principles.
And that's before Christian conservative leaders bolt the party, which has abandoned them on abortion, to run a third-party candidate.
A little political realism, please. If you think a candidate who breaks up the Republican Party is the best man to lead the nation, vote for Rudy. But don't imagine, it's going to be easy to elect him.
juli’s opportunity to beat hillary was in 2000.
BTT
Rudy slapped Hillary around very well today.
I aint a Rudy tooter, but its the truth.
Hillary is very weak on the issues
Hillary beats Rudy because Rudy cannot bring the whole party to the voting booth .
Fred Thompson is the only one who can do it . We cannot win without the base , Thompson can unite the base and the so- called middle to beat Hillary .
Has the war been terribly handled PR wise, yes! (especially from 04 thru 06). It has been somewhat better of late.
With that said, the Iraq war (WOT) is not unpopular. Is the American public bored with it (for lack of a better term). Yes......But those who suggest they are against the war in Iraq....for the most part their stance is a mile wide and an inch deep.
Meaning, a coherent, educated discussion on the topic can make a large segment of the population understand the need to stay on the offensive in this WOT. That success in Iraq is vital to being successful in the WOT. The majority of the American public want that (and it's happening).
Fact is Iraq, the Dem's won't be talking about it nearly as much come Nov 08 (because of the clear success that will continue to be happening there).
It was fine until she started advocating for Slick Willard at the end, like nominating him wouldn’t be the same kind of disaster.
Bravo! Stop Rudy now!!!
And thats where he belongs, The NY senate. Not POTUS
Is he talking about the same Jerry Ford that I remember? The one who signed into law the Earned Income Tax Credit? The massive income redistribution scheme, reverse income tax, that just keeps growing and growing and growing?
Hitlery is very vulnerable and beatable to any who has the balls to directly take her on.
I must disagree .
They are both great men , but given the way that American politics has evolved , it will take star power to beat Hillary and the MSM/Dim axis .
Rudy has it and Thompson has it , but only one can deliver the party and the middle combined . Thompson is the only one.
I picture Thompson on a stage with Hillary. The visual alone will convince the masses who is fit to lead , along with Thompson’s subtle slap downs ....
Damn Skippy!
Yeah, Ford fiscally conservative? Not that I remember. I do remember those stupid w.i.n. (whip inflation now) buttons.
BTTT
Rudy slapped her around good, and this is fine with me.
Im watching ALL the R advance the issues wile the dems pander and spin.
Rudy and Mitt are escalating things in our own camp.
Fred just walked in the door and I think he will make some decent arguments on the way to the primary’s.
Rudy and Mitt are bitching over their executive experience already. They risk wearing out that argument at this early stage.
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