Rudy can't win. Anyone that thinks otherwise can't remember history and will therefore repeat it.
So who's your candidate, then? It can't be Fred Thompson since you claim that Bob Dole was a moderate. Their lifetime ACU ratings are only 3 points apart (Thompson, 86 and Dole, 83) - an insignificant difference.
The mood of the electorate doesn't always stay constant. The pendulum often swings back and forth. In the six elections from 1952 to 1972 saw 4 elections go to moderate Republicans (3 by landslide), one narrow loss by a moderate Republican, and one landslide loss by a conservative Republican. I think that the mood of the electorate has drifted away from conservatism in the last 20 years. I think that Karl Rove read this trend awhile ago, hence the Dubya campaign as a "compassionate" conservative. By 2000, the label of "pure" conservative was becoming a handicap in the general election. The pendulum may be swinging back to the middle which would make your analysis fairly irrelevant.