Above: The yield on the 10-year Note
Because the industry is finally pricing risk back into the market.
They are finally admitting that ‘ninja’ (aka: no income/no job/assets) loans are a really bad and risk-laden idea. And ARMs are for people who do not intend to stay in the house for a long period of time before selling; which isn’t a good idea in a market that is showing too high an inventory to move effectively.
So ARM rates will continue to move higher, and more of the serious buyers/owners will move to the very stable 30 year fixed. The market fixes itself. Until the Fed.gov interferes again, creating yet another imbalance.
A lot of those ARMs have interest rates that were locked in 3/4 years ago when a 4.25 15 year fixed loans were available.
Now it's 3-4 years later and the ARM rates are reflecting the current interest rates instead of 2003-2004 time periods.
Anyone that had/bought a house that did not refinance / finance with fixed rates at the bottom of a 40 year low was an idiot.