The hurricane is forecast to remain in an extremely low wind shear environment and to move over waters of increasingly high oceanic heat content. Therefore I see no reason why Felix will not become a major hurricane within 12 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is quite similar to the logistic growth equation model...lgem... version of SHIPS and calls for Cat. 4 intensity withing 36 hours. It should be noted that the purely dynamical models have not been very bullish on the strengthening of Felix so far. The initial motion is just a smidgen to the right of previous estimates...around 285/16.
There is no important change to the track forecast reasoning for the next 2-3 days. Global model predictions show a deep layer ridge persisting to the north of Felix...which should prevent a significant northward shift of the hurricane's track over the Caribbean. There is more uncertainty in the 4 and 5 day forecast locations. The GFS shows a 500 mb trough over the central U.S. In about 5 days. This feature could erode the high over the Gulf of Mexico and result in a more northward track near the end of the forecast period. For this advisory package only a slight northward adjustment is made to the 96- and 120-hour forecasts. The current NHC track forecast is also a little slower than the previous one at 3-5 days. In any event it should be recalled that the average track errors at 4 and 5 days range from over 200 miles to nearly 300 miles respectively...so one should not be focusing on the exact track at these extended ranges. The radii of 12-ft seas over the northern semicircle have been expanded based on data from NOAA data buoy 42059. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 02/1500z 13.2n 70.1w 90 kt 12hr VT 03/0000z 13.7n 72.8w 100 kt 24hr VT 03/1200z 14.4n 76.3w 110 kt 36hr VT 04/0000z 15.1n 79.5w 120 kt 48hr VT 04/1200z 15.8n 82.7w 125 kt 72hr VT 05/1200z 17.0n 87.0w 120 kt 96hr VT 06/1200z 19.0n 90.5w 70 kt...inland 120hr VT 07/1200z 21.0n 94.0w 85 kt
All the computer models sure have aligned for a change.