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Hurricane Felix (Update: Category 5 Hurricane )
NWS/NHC ^ | September 1, 2007 | NWS/NHC

Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Felix has formed near the South American

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northern coast of Venezuela from Cumana to Pedernales including the island of Margarita.

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Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Breaking News
KEYWORDS: felix; tropical; tsfelix
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; Amelia; asp1; ..
Felix The Cat 5

Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph.
Maximum sustained winds...165 mph.
Minimum central pressure...934 mb.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

301 posted on 09/02/2007 5:00:35 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: All
Hurricane Felix Special Discussion Number 10

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2007

Reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Felix
has intensified and is now a category five hurricane.  The aircraft
reported peak flight-level winds of 152 kt...with peak SFMR winds
of 142 kt in the southwest quadrant.  Higher SFMR winds were found
in the northeast quadrant...up to 163 kt...but these may have been
contaminated by groupel.  A dropsonde released in the southwest
quadrant landed in the northeast quadrant...and this drop yielded a
surface estimate of 139 kt based on the lowest 150 M layer average. 
Based on these data...the peak surface winds are estimated to be at
least 145 kt.  An eye sonde measured a surface pressure of 936 mb
with surface winds of 24 kt.  Because of the extreme turbulence and
groupel that the aircraft experienced...the mission is being
aborted and the aircraft is returning to St. Croix.

This special advisory is being issued to update the initial and
forecast intensities.  No other changes to the forecast are being
made.  This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the
scheduled intermediate advisory.
 
 
Forecast positions and Max winds
 
initial      03/0000z 13.8n  72.9w   145 kt
 12hr VT     03/0600z 14.1n  74.5w   150 kt
 24hr VT     03/1800z 14.8n  78.0w   145 kt
 36hr VT     04/0600z 15.4n  81.1w   145 kt
 48hr VT     04/1800z 16.0n  83.5w   145 kt
 72hr VT     05/1800z 17.3n  87.7w   135 kt
 96hr VT     06/1800z 19.5n  91.5w    80 kt
120hr VT     07/1800z 21.5n  95.0w    90 kt
 
$$
forecaster Franklin/Brown

302 posted on 09/02/2007 5:00:44 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg

A harrowing experience for the hurricane hunters.


303 posted on 09/02/2007 5:02:30 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse
A harrowing experience for the hurricane hunters.

And the NOAA guys aren't usually on the scene for these bomb-ups.

304 posted on 09/02/2007 5:03:33 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: All
Hurricane Felix Special Advisory Number 10

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2007

...Felix now a category five hurricane...
Reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Felix
continues to rapidly strengthen.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica and for Grand
Cayman.  A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should
closely monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
 
At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located
near latitude 13.8 north...longitude 72.9 west or about 390 miles...
625 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
 
Felix is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph...270 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Felix is a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are to be expected over the 
next 24 hours.
 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
miles...185 km.
 
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
data is 934 mb...27.58 inches.
 
Felix is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
over the Guajira Peninsula of northern Colombia.
Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...13.8 N...72.9 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...165
mph.  Minimum central pressure...934 mb.
 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Franklin/Brown

305 posted on 09/02/2007 5:04:16 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: CindyDawg
What happens if these winds intetact?

I've been wondering that myself. If you get an answer to your question, would you please ping me? Thanks.

306 posted on 09/02/2007 5:05:30 PM PDT by prairiebreeze (PUT AMERICA AHEAD! VOTE FOR FRED!!)
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To: prairiebreeze; CindyDawg

Think we’ll just have to wait and see what transpires if they happen to collide.


307 posted on 09/02/2007 5:07:03 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: CindyDawg
What happens if these winds intetact?

They won't in this, but the stronger low would dominate. There would be some localized stronger/weaker winds (depending on relative velocities) as the weaker low gets sucked in and absorbed.

308 posted on 09/02/2007 5:11:31 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg

Then it would morph into the Algore of all hurricanes!


309 posted on 09/02/2007 5:13:32 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: SomeCallMeTim
I’ve been noting with great interest, the northern migration of the computer models over the past 2 days

Actually the models that matter have shifted south today.

310 posted on 09/02/2007 5:14:24 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: NautiNurse

Perhaps you should have the moderator kick up the thread title?


311 posted on 09/02/2007 5:15:07 PM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla (A person who does not want the best for America)
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To: SouthTexas

I’m wondering if two systems butting heads like that could spawn tornadoes.

Of course the ‘cane itself can also do that, I believe. But what do I know about hurricanes? I’m a native prairie-dweller and gulf coast transplant.

:^)


312 posted on 09/02/2007 5:15:45 PM PDT by prairiebreeze (PUT AMERICA AHEAD! VOTE FOR FRED!!)
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To: prairiebreeze

Felix isn’t close enough to anything else to interact.

When tropical systems are close to each other, they do a “Fujiwhara” - they spin around each other counterclockwise. Neither system gets stronger because of it - the weaker one tends to get weakened further, and sometimes basically disappates as it’s destroyed by the larger one.


313 posted on 09/02/2007 5:17:32 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: prairiebreeze
Don't really know about the combo, was playing.

They do spawn tornadoes, sometimes many, many tornadoes.

314 posted on 09/02/2007 5:18:39 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: Strategerist

I’m guessing GFDL and GFS are giving great weight to Henriette, while the others don’t take her into their math?
What’s your take?


315 posted on 09/02/2007 5:19:02 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: NautiNurse

Yikes! Cat 5!


316 posted on 09/02/2007 5:19:49 PM PDT by Ditter
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To: steveegg
Forecaster Franklin/Brown need to learn how to spell graupel.
317 posted on 09/02/2007 5:20:35 PM PDT by raygun (Who knows what would happen if Technosaurus Rex met Geekzilla.)
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To: txflake

Henriette is really pretty far away as these things go. And there’s quite high mountains in Mexico between them. Henriette will be gone by the time Felix crosses the Yucatan, anyway.


318 posted on 09/02/2007 5:21:04 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: NautiNurse
"Felix The Cat 5"

Wow! (Watching)

319 posted on 09/02/2007 5:22:20 PM PDT by blam (Secure the border and enforce the law)
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To: prairiebreeze
Here you go:

Local Storm Report

09/02/2007 0610 PM

Mercedes, Hidalgo County.

Funnel cloud, reported by law enforcement.

Mercedes police reported one tree down near Texas and
tenth streets in the city. Numerous callers reported a
funnel cloud in the area.

320 posted on 09/02/2007 5:23:08 PM PDT by Pebcak
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