I have an advance guess: If Ron Paul wins, the poll will be meaningless and stupid and no one should pay attention to it and except for Iowa straw polls don’t count and the only thing that counts is the primaries and the national polls, etc, etc.
If Ron Paul does not win, it will be proof that he is a fringe candidate and he doesn’t have grassroots support and he has no chance of ever winning the nomination and rising support in national polls is meaningless and only these straw polls should count, etc, etc.
You forgot that if he loses, the poll is fixed.
I stopped short of saying straw polls are stupid because many people find them interesting, myself included. However, no one should be so foolish as to think that they are meaningful, particularly when the major players aren't giving them the time of day.