Actually, let's suppose a bit further. If the South had won, would that really have been the end of it? I seriously doubt it. Much of the underlying cause of the war had more to do with westward expansion, and the question of whether new states and territories would be "free" or "slave" states.
A victory for the South would not have done much to stop westward expansion by either North or South, and it would undoubtedly have sharpened the conflicts over territories.
Overall, I think that even if the North had acquiesced to secession, the war would probably have started anyway, in the west. And even if the South had won, the war would have begun anew, in the west.
In the case of the Civil War Smedley Butlers speech applies. For what it's worth there was some division within the south even among the Generals themselves as to the South's direction and intent. That division and some jealousy from those who had Jeff Davis's ear cost the south the war. Jeff Davis also like Lincoln became too focused on the industrialist namely the cotton industry rather than the intent of the founders and states rights. At least one CSA general told him as much was a thorn in Braggs flesh. :>}