World Terrorism: News, History and Research Of A Changing World #10 Security Watch

Bid to kidnap Uribe sons ‘foiled’
Colombian police say they have foiled a plot by left-wing Farc guerrillas to kidnap the two grown-up sons of President Alvaro Uribe.

Police chief Oscar Naranjo said 10 people had been arrested after phone calls made by imprisoned guerrillas were monitored.

Reporters heard a tape allegedly recorded in October in which two inmates apparently plan the kidnapping.

Farc is seeking to negotiate a swap of hostages for its own jailed members.

Gen Naranjo said the police had started monitoring the phone calls of three imprisoned leaders of the Farc seven months ago on a tip-off from confidential sources.

“In the perverse mafia logic of the Farc, I imagine they viewed [Uribe’s children] as an extremely valuable booty,” Gen Naranjo said.

Negotiations endangered

He added police had concluded the elite Teofilo Forero mobile unit of the Farc - the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia - planned to kidnap Tomas Uribe, 26, and Jeronimo Uribe, 24.

Gen Naranjo said security for the two president’s sons has been reinforced.

Correspondents say this move could further complicate current efforts to exchange hostages held by Farc for members of the guerrilla group in Colombian jails.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has lent his support to mediation efforts, wants to see the Farc release Colombian-French national Ingrid Betancourt - kidnapped while campaigning for the Colombian presidency in 2002.

Last month, Colombia terminated Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s role as mediator between the government and the rebels.

Farc has been waging a guerrilla war against the Colombian government since the 1960s and is holding scores of politicians, police and soldiers hostage, using them for ransom and political leverage.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/americas/7143571.stm

Published: 2007/12/14 02:22:21 GMT

Argentine cyanide family arrested
By Daniel Schweimler
BBC News, Buenos Aires

The wife and two grown-up children of a convicted human rights abuser in Argentina have been arrested in connection with his death.

Hector Febres was found in his cell earlier this week having ingested cyanide, just days before he was to be sentenced for human rights abuses.

The crimes were committed under military rule in the 1970s and ‘80s.

An estimated 30,000 people were kidnapped, tortured and killed during Argentina’s “dirty war” from 1976-1983.

Opportunity lost

Hector Febres worked at the Naval Mechanics School, or ESMA, the most notorious detention and torture centre used under Argentina’s military rule.

Many died there, their bodies thrown into the nearby River Plate.

Febres had stories to tell and many suspected he might talk before being sentenced.

Police are investigating whether he was murdered or he killed himself.

Prosecution lawyers are convinced he was silenced by those linked to the military who kidnapped, tortured and killed an estimated 30,000 people during military rule.

Two of those responsible for guarding Febres have been detained. So have his wife and two grown-up children, who ate with him the night before his body was found poisoned with cyanide.

Febres was to be the first person from the ESMA to be sentenced, but the legal process will end with his death.

The detention centre was earlier this year handed over to the civilian authorities and will become a memorial centre or museum.

But the families of the victims will feel that the death of Febres has robbed them of an opportunity to find out more and to see justice done in Argentina - a process which has so far moved very slowly.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/americas/7145040.stm

Published: 2007/12/14 17:40:51 GMT

Arrest warrant in Litvinenko case
Russian politician Andrei Lugovoi, wanted by UK police for the murder of Alexander Litvinenko, will be arrested if he enters any European country.

British Ambassador to Moscow, Sir Anthony Brenton, said a European arrest warrant had been issued.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has blamed the UK for a diplomatic rift which developed after Mr Litvinenko was poisoned in London last year.

He has ordered the closure of two British Council offices in Russia.

‘Deterioration’

The council is a non-governmental organisation which promotes British culture abroad.

Moscow has made it clear that the decision to close the offices in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg was part of the continuing dispute over its refusal to extradite Mr Lugovoi, a former KGB agent.

It would penalise the thousands of Russian citizens who benefit from the council’s activities.
Foreign Office response to the potential British Council closures

Britain expelled four Russian diplomats in July, with Russia expelling four Britons shortly afterwards.

Mr Lavrov told a news briefing: “Britain has embarked on a programme of systematic deterioration of our bilateral relations, expelled Russian diplomats, ceased all cooperative contact with the FSB (Russian state security service), meaning any and all counter-terrorism co-operation.”

Mr Lavrov said the offices “are in violation of an international convention on consular relations”.

‘Serious attack’

The Foreign Office has said Britain still wants to work with Russia on issues of common interest.

However, it warned the Kremlin that if it carried out its threat against the British Council it would constitute a “serious attack” against a “legitimate cultural agent” of the UK government.

A spokesman said: “It would show a disregard for the rule of law. It would penalise the thousands of Russian citizens who benefit from the council’s activities.

“And it would only damage Russia’s reputation around the world.”

Mr Lugovoi is the main suspect in the radiation poisoning murder of Kremlin critic Mr Litvinenko, and the Crown Prosecution Service has said it has enough evidence to charge him.

He denies any involvement.

Mr Lugovoi had tea with Mr Litvinenko at London’s Millennium Mayfair Hotel on the day he fell ill in November, 2006.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/uk_news/7144586.stm

Published: 2007/12/14 16:58:04 GMT

Extremism’s little helpers

Home-grown Islamists need look no further than our universities for
ideological inspiration, write David Martin Jones and Carl Ungerer |
December 15, 2007

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,22924794-28737,00.html?from=public_rss
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,22924794-28737,00.html?from=public_rssT

The global jihadism that confronts Western liberal democracies in the
shape
of al-Qa’ida and its affiliates is above all a war of perception and
propaganda.

That our universities may be sustaining the ideology that supports
global
jihadism, this Islamist revolt against the West, should therefore be a
concern.

Not only does the prevailing academic anti-Western thought form the
background to jihadism’s thinking about the international order, it
also
undermines our political democratic self-understanding. Yet the
argument and
style that characterise the more sophisticated jihadist texts reflect
supposedly cutting-edge thinking in new, academically fashionable
fields
such as critical terror studies: critical of the West, that is.

By a curious and little explored irony, the thinking that supports
jihadism
has been dreamed up in university departments funded by Western
governments
and finds its way into the reports of the jihadist equivalent of think
tanks.

Clearly, home-grown Islamist radicalisation is a threat to the way of
life
of open, liberal Western societies such as ours. This has been
recognised
since the terrorist attacks in Madrid in 2003 and London in 2005, and
the
discovery of similar alleged plots in Toronto, New York, Sydney,
Melbourne,
Copenhagen and Frankfurt.

We face a form of Islamist ideology that deliberately exploits the
anxieties
of second-generation Muslims of immigrant parents. These younger
Muslims are
confronted by the conflicting demands of a modern lifestyle and a
traditional family structure, and this tension is crucial to the
recruitment
and radicalisation process.

continues..........

Copenhagen: Increase in gang-crime
Crime in Denmark is now at its lowest since 1983. In Copenhagen the number of serious crimes, perpetuated by youth of immigrant background, has fallen by 20%, says Nikolaj Jensen, of the Copenhagen police. Copenhagen is the only place in the country where crime statistics differentiate between ethnic Danes and immigrants. However, whatever crime there is, is much more serious.

Copenhagen police says that having a job means a lot for youth and they have had much success with several preventive projects where youth end up with a job. In the past 4 years, more immigrants get to the job market. From 2003 to 2006 there was an increase from 45% to 49%, with expected better results in 2007.

Ahmed Abu-Aishe from Nørrebro, was rescued by a job, getting an apprenticeship as a carpenter and volunteering in a youth club, while before he just hung out in the streets. He says that the job has saved his life, giving him an education and work to think of. It also means a lot to his family.

More and more youth are ending up in gangs. Fahmy Almajid thinks that the authorities did not take the warning signals seriously, though the first immigrant gangs appeared in the 1990’s. At the same time, he thinks Denmark will now experience murders being avenged, both by the gangs and by the family of those murdered, since ‘honor’ has a lot of meaning in the community.

Integration consultant Mohammad Rafiq agrees: there’s a large group of youth that the authorities never paid attention to. The youth are a ticking bomb, and we haven’t seen the last of them.

An increasing number of incidents of gun violence between rival gangs is being fuelled by an influx of new members, according to a number of experts familiar with Copenhagen’s minority communities.

In the most recent incident, a 21-year-old man was shot in the head and killed late Wednesday night in the Nørrebro neighbourhood. He is the first person to be killed in the ten shootings recorded by police in the past month, but Fahmy Almajid, an integration counsellor, warned that the violence will continue as their ranks swell.

‘These gangs are growing rapidly right now as young people that have fallen through the cracks join up,’ he said.

Police have identified six main gangs with a total of about 150 members in the Copenhagen area. Members typically range between the ages of 15 and 25. Most of the groups are based in the city’s southern and western suburbs, but at least two claim the Nørrebro neighbourhood as their turf.

The shootings, however, have not been restricted to gang territory. During one weekend last month, three shootings were reported in downtown Copenhagen and near Christiania, an area with a history of drug-related shootings.

Many of the gangs were founded in the 1990s, and according to Almajid were able to take root because police and social services workers ignored their growth.

Police call the recent spate of shootings unrelated acts of ‘payback’, but some suggest that they may be part of a showdown for control of the drug market.

The victim of Wednesday’s shooting was reportedly a member of a group known as the Sjælør Gang, which takes its name from one of Copenhagen’s rougher neighbourhoods. The driver of the car in which he was riding was also shot, but was able to continue to a nearby hospital.

When other members of the gang showed up at the emergency room, they were discovered to have been carrying handguns and wearing bullet-proof vests.

Police and social workers described members of the group as ‘hardened criminals’, and said that the killing had apparently been an execution, which was likely to be avenged.

‘This is a group that fights against everyone,’ said police inspector Nikolaj Hansen. ‘We’re talking about people who lack empathy and morals, and who have a totally different idea of honour than we are accustomed to.’

Sources: Copenhagen Post (English), DR (Danish), Berlingske Tidende (Danish)

—
Posted By Esther to Islam in Europe at 12/15/2007 12:00:00 PM __._,_.___

Islam In Europe

News and Opinions about the Muslim
and Islamic Community in Europe and the West

http://islamineurope.blogspot.com

Duesseldorf: Kurd demonstration
Thousands of Kurds have held a demonstration in the western German city of Duesseldorf, protesting potential Turkish military involvement in northern Iraq, and calling for the release of rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan. Some of the protestors carried placards supporting Ocalan, the founder of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, who is serving a life prison sentence in Turkey. Hundreds of police officers were deployed in the city to prevent trouble. Police said there were a few small scuffles, and that a few demonstrators were detained.

Source: Deutsche Welle (English)

—
Posted By Esther to Islam in Europe at 12/15/2007 03:01:00 PM __._,_.___

Islam In Europe

News and Opinions about the Muslim
and Islamic Community in Europe and the West

http://islamineurope.blogspot.com

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1939831/posts?page=47#47

Sri Lanka Sank 6 N. Korean Ships Carrying Weapons between this Feb. and Oct. (w/ US help)
VOA News ^ | 12/14/07 | Sohn Ji-heun

Posted on 12/15/2007 2:23:53 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster

Sri Lanka Sank 6 N. Korean Ships Carrying Weapons between this Feb. and Oct.

12/14/2007

Sohn Ji-heun

/begin my summary

* Six N. Korean ships were sunk by Sri Lankan Navy between Feb. 28 and late October of this year.
* They were shipping weapons for Tamil Tigers, which were designated as a terrorist organization by U.S. State Dept.
* Both N. Korean crews and Tamil terrorists were aboard the ships. They were all presumed to be killed.
* Sri Lankan Navy was able to sink them with the help of U.S., which passed on intelligence on the location of (N. Korean) ships in advance
* It is estimated that the repeated loss of the ships cost N. Korea $200 million.
* The ships were 250 ft long, carrying Chinese artillery guns, ammunition, light weapons, and small arms.
* Chinese arms manufacturer NORINCO has been selling weapons to N. Korea. However, it is not clear where the weapons on board originated.
* As of Dec. 13, State Dept. is still standing by their official position that N. Korea has not engaged in terrorist activities since 1987.

/end my summary

http://www.defense-update.com/analysis/analysis_011207_gulf.htm

Is Washington Losing
the Gulf to Moscow?
David Eshel

With only hours to spare, the US organizers of the Middle East conference opening in Annapolis last Tuesday decided to make the best of a forlorn event by switching its key motive, from the intractable Israeli-Palestinian dispute to Iran - and its multiple threats to the Middle East. President Bush and Secretary Rice hoped to form a united Arab front against Ahmadinejad’s Iran. But as it soon turned out, this endeavor will be a daunting task in view of at least two obstacles: King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia no longer seems to recognize the US as the single dominant political and military force in the Persian Gulf; and Syrian participation - albeit at the low level of deputy foreign minister, was hardly a convincing indication, that Damascus was considering a drastic change from its strategic link with Tehran. The first alarm bell announcing that not much has changed sounded only hours after the distinguished Annapolis guests left for their capitals with grave doubts over its sobering outcome.

In Annapolis, while Bush, Abbas and Olmert were still basking in the sunlight of illusory expectations, Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal and Syrian deputy foreign minister Faisal Mekdad were quietly finalizing a deal over Lebanon - kept secret from the US President, who was fully engaged with the Israeli-Palestinians peace process. Bush and Rice, by inviting Syria to the Annapolis, indeed exceptional, over Washington’s persistent refusals, had intended to buy Damascus off from installing another pro-Syrian puppet candidate into Beirut’s Ba’abda presidential palace. Unfortunately, the Syrian-Saudi secret tête-à-tête move, quite a surprising move by two lesGeneral Michel Suleiman, Elected President of lebanonser friendly nations, based on Syria’s staunch adherence to Saudi’s Sunni rival in Tehran, resulted in getting the 59 year General Michel Suleiman elected as the next Lebanese president. The general, known as pro-Syrian was ‘catapulted’ into commanding the Lebanese Army in 1999, when Lebanon was still very much ‘owned’ by Damascus. After all that Washington and had Paris invested in preventing such a dangerous move in Beirut, Suleiman’s election, if it goes ahead by next week, will be a visible slap in the face of President Bush’s losing his grip on the real makings in the Middle East and not the make-believe ‘dreamworld’ of a Olmert-Abbas peace deal, which will never really work out.

But that is not all: On December 3, only five days after the Annapolis conference, five Persian Gulf oil states were scheduled to meet discussing critical points in their common relations with Washington. One is whether to continue to keep oil prices linked to the fast-sinking US dollar or adopt a currency basket.

Such talk in the Persian Gulf must indicate clear signs of waning American influence in this strategic Gulf region. In fact, painfully aware of this trend, President Bush had already decided to take advantage of the broad Arab presence at Annapolis to initiate attempt in turning the tide and cut US losses against Iran influence in the region. But, having almost criminally ignored Russia’s intentions in that very region, matters could be sliding too fast for a radical remedy, depending last minute energic steps to be taken, without delay by Washington. Here are a few examples of Moscow’s latest activities in the strategic Persian Gulf region.

Saudi Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Deputy Premier, Minister of Defense and Aviation and Inspector General, met Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow, November 2007An important event, which was surprisingly ignored by the media, happened in Moscow just shortly before the Annapolis fiasco. Saudi Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Deputy Premier, Minister of Defense and Aviation and Inspector General, paid a three-day official visit to Federal Republic of Russia. Prince Sultan held talks with President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. Both emphasized the importance of strengthening Saudi-Russian relations in all areas and enhancing coordination to protect mutual interests. The Sultan highlighted the distinguished relations between the two countries. He also commended Russia’s positive stance toward regional and international issues. According to diplomatic sources in Riyadh, the two countries were to reach a “framework agreement for military cooperation” that would open the way for Saudi Arabia to buy Russian arms. Following high-level meetings in Moscow, a large arms transaction with Russia should tightened bilateral relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The Sultan’s statements during the visit were a quite spectacular. For the first time, a senior Saudi official called for cooperation between Riyadh and Moscow to halt, what he called the “crazy, illogical and disproportionate” slaughter in Iraq. No one could be happier over such words from a high profile Arab visitor, than Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Indeed, as unbelievably as it may sound to American ears, at the time already fully engaged in welcoming Abdulaziz’s collegue, Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal in Annapolis, these were the strongest words condemning US actions in the Middle East since King Abdullah referred to America’s “occupation” of Iraq at the Riyadh conference of March 2007.

Last February, President of Russia Vladimir Putin paid his historic visit to Saudi Arabia, the first trip by a Russian leader to the Sunni Arab kingdom, to discuss energy projects and the situation in the Middle East. Speaking after Putin’s visit to Riyadh, Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal said that the Kingdom was in talks with Russia over the possible purchase of Russian weapons. Surprisingly, the final communiqué issued after Sultan’s visit did not mention anything about an arms deal. However an official source, who requested anonymity, said Sultan’s talks with Putin would lead to an understanding on the sale of about 150 Russian T-90 battle tanks to the Kingdom. The source said tests were carried out on the T-90 in Saudi Arabia last year to determine the tank’s suitability for harsh desert conditions, and Russia is also looking to sell Mi-17 helicopters. It is well known, that Saudi Arabia has been a traditional buyer of US and other western military equipment but has recently signaled that it may be considering diversifying its arsenal.

Whether by coincidence, or strategic planning, Washington retaliated quickly last July, proposing a mammoth arms sale package to the Persian Gulf states and primarily Saudi Arabia. Surpassing some 20 billion US dollars in value, the proposed package could include satellite-guided bombs, upgrades to first-line fighter aircraft and new naval vessels. But, as usual, under the already prevailing pre-election environment Washington administration officials remained concerned that the size of the package and the advanced weaponry it contains, as well as broader concerns about Saudi Arabia’s role in Iraq, could prompt Saudi critics in Congress to oppose the package when Congress is formally notified about the deal. Such quite natural democratic hesitations could well pave the way for Moscow’s arms deal.
Russian Strategic Ambitions in the Persian Gulf

Several factors account for a recent growth in Russia’s assertive policy in the Persian Gulf. One has to do with Moscow’s and primarily President Putin’s reestablishment of Russia as a great power. Another issue directly affects Russian stability and security; the Arab Middle East which is closely linked with ex-Soviet Muslim nations in central Asia and the Caucasus. Nevertheless, it seems clearly, that Putin’s overall strategic aim is to challenge the predominant U.S. security position in the Gulf, which in the pre-Iraq occupation fiasco era, was totally unthinkable.

But there were already first signs of change in Moscow’s feelers to this region, when following Operation Desert Storm, then Russian Prime Minister Chernomyrdin toured Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman in November 1994. Being the first visit by a Russian prime minister to an Arab state Moscow it already had far- sighted goals. It was an invitation to long-term cooperation and to positions more appreciative of the Russian market and its export capabilities. Nevertheless, the time was not right and not much was achieved until Putin’s muscle-flexing speech at the 43rd Munich Conference on Security Policy on February 2007. Normally any speech by a Russian high-profile personality is listened to very carefully, by Western politicians and Putin’s out-right challenge was no exception. The carefully phrased rhetoric did not break new ground; indeed, it only repeated things that the Russians have been saying for quite a while. But the venue in which it was delivered, the timing and the confidence with which it was asserted, signified Moscow’s new strategic direction. While the Cold War had not returned, Russia now officially asserted itself as a great power, and started behaving accordingly. The Russians are arguing that the uni-polar world is becoming unacceptable and President Putin now clearly intends to escalate the confrontations with the United States along key focal points, mainly in the strategic Middle East, which has for decades been under Washington’s full patronage. Putin believes that, due to America’s involvement in the deep Iraq insurgency quagmire, the time is right to challenge the Middle East Muslim arena, which is the pressure point to which the United States is most sensitive.

The primary goal, though not the only one, are Russian energy interests in Middle East. Russia is not only a major exporter of energy supplies, it is currently the world’s top oil producer. The Russians have a need to maintain robust energy prices, and working with the Iranians and Saudis in some way to achieve would be directly in line with Moscow’s interest. Putin knows perfectly well how vitally important a geo-strategic commodity energy is. Energy supply issues have become a primordial part of international economic policy today. Not surprisingly then, Putin selected Russia’s extensive oil and gas resources and pipelines, as well as national champion companies, as the key policy instruments in playing a ruthless chess game in world energy geopolitics. And the figures are impressive. As far as natural resources are concerned, Russia’s position is extremely strong: holding 6.6 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and 26 percent of the world’s gas reserves, it currently accounts for 12 percent of world oil and 21 of recent world gas production. According to 2007, statistics, Russia was the world’s largest oil and gas producer. Under these conditions, it would seem only natural that with energy demand constantly on the rise, Russia wants to use its position as a major energy producer of both oil and gas in order to regain geopolitical significance. And gaining a strong foothold in Middle-East politics, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, could well become a prime objectives for Moscow’s new global ambitions.

Moscow clearly realizes that the two main Islamic powers between the Levant and the Hindu-Kush are Saudi Arabia and Iran. The Russians have things they very would much like from each of these, but Saudis and Iranians have different strategic and religious interests at stake. Saudi Arabia — an Arab and predominantly Sunni kingdom — is very rich but militarily relatively weak. Iran — the largest Persian Shiite power — is not nearly as rich as Saudi Arabia but militarily very powerful, with nuclear ambitions making it a strategic contender for Gulf domination. Moreover, there exists a tremendous geopolitical asymmetry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Riyadh’s Saudi princes are extremely concerned with Tehran’s Shi’ite clerics’ strategic ambitions would very much like to limit these into acceptable proportions. For this aim, the Saudis however need foreign power assistance- primarily American, at least sofar. This creates internal unrest which places the Saudi Royalty in severe dilemma. Dependence on US military power to keep Iran within bounds, conflicts with internal interest to deny, or at least, limit foreign military presence in the country. The other dilemma which can also affect Russian interests is the oil price. Encouraging high oil price tags, may be of local interest to fill the already packed Saudi coffers, but at the same time strengthen Iran, while efforts to lower these, could affect Russian aspirations, oil being Moscow’s major financial income asset.

But Russia also has dilemmas, when dealing in Middle-Eastern politics. Russia does not wish to see the Islamic fundamentalist clerics in Tehran becoming a dominant strategic power in the oil-rich Persian Gulf region. In this they might even share Washington’s strategic interests. But the Russians do want to use Iran, within certain manageable proportions, which makes Moscow’s own position an extremely complex one. As the old saying goes: “the Middle East is a graveyard of ambitions”.
One highly controversial aspect of Russian’s Persian Gulf involvement concerns helping Riyadh and other Middle-East nations with nuclear power development was discussed during the meeting. All major regional players in the Middle East appear eager to gain nuclear energy capabilities, probably to counter Iran’s nuclear ambitions. For example, Putin, in a recent trip to Egypt, offered Russian nuclear knowledge to Cairo. Putin’s latest activism in the nuclear diplomatic power game within the Middle East is not only highly dangerous, but must be extremely challenging to Israel and the United States of America. On the one hand, it is Moscow’s ideal instrument for gaining influence over the regional dynamics; this is in fact the Russian strategy toward Iran. It is possible that Moscow does not really want a nuclear Iran close to it’s border region and because relations between the two countries are complex and often disturbed by diverging interests, especially in the Caspian sea, they are approaching this issue with extreme caution. Therefore, Russian support for Iran on the nuclear issue is instrumental, actually representing a rather shrewd approach, trying at the same time to limit Iran’s strategic independence.

Despite all recent endeavors by Moscow to assert its strategic presence in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East as such, the undeniable fact remains, at least for the foreseeable future, that the United States is still the prominent power in the region. It will be extremely difficult for Moscow to replace Washington’s role as the main ally of major Middle East nations. Although Moscow is attempting such a move, it seems realistic, that as long as the United States remains the hegemonic power in the region, maintaining its overwhelming military presence in the Gulf, it will be extremely difficult to implement its aspirations.
For further reading we recommend:

* What is really behind Putin’s unprecedented hop to Tehran?
* Hamastan Gaza- to become a Wahhabist Outpost?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1939778/posts

L.A. Gangs: Nine Miles and Spreading
LA Weekly ^ | December 12, 2007 | Peter Landesman

Posted on 12/14/2007 9:04:30 PM PST by Lorianne

Nationwide, juvenile gang homicides have spiked 23 percent since 2000. There are six times as many gangs in L.A. as there were a quarter century ago, and twice as many gang members. But as important as the gang activity itself is what’s different about the violence. In America’s urban ganglands, and in L.A. in particular, the ferocity of the thuggery has surged; gang members, their victims and police long on the gang beat tell me the fighting has become more codeless, more arbitrary and more brutal than ever.

And it is everywhere. According to the Department of Justice, today America has at least 30,000 gangs, with 800,000 members, in 2,500 communities across the United States. (Gang experts at the University of Southern California claim the number of American jurisdictions with gang problems has reached 4,000.) Federal, state and local law enforcement across the country agree that street gangs connected to or mimicking the L.A. model have become a national epidemic.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1939887/posts

More Border Cities See Signs of Mara Salvatrucha(MS-13)
12/13/2007 01:06:53 AM MST | Daniel Borunda /

Posted on 12/15/2007 6:38:55 AM PST by kellynla

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1421308/posts

QUESTION AND ANSWER SERIES EL SALVADOR RE-EMERGENCE OF “SOCIAL CLEANSING” DEATH SQUADS
INS RESOURCE INFORMATION CENTER ^ | MARCH 1999 | DOUGLAS PAYNE

Posted on 06/12/2005 4:57:01 AM PDT by Calpernia

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1347306/posts?q=1&;page=1

America’s Most Dangerous Gang - MS13 - Violent, Vicious, and Spreading Fast.
PoliceMag ^

Posted on 02/20/2005 10:53:56 AM PST by Happy2BMe

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1670644/posts

‘MS-13’ is one of nation’s most dangerous gangs
MSNBC ^ | Feb 13, 2006 | ‘Rita Cosby

Posted on 07/22/2006 4:29:14 PM PDT by dvan

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1354262/posts?q=1&;page=101

GANG LAND
Michelle Malkin ^ | Mar. 02, 2005 | Michelle Malkin

Posted on 03/02/2005 8:34:04 AM PST by JustAnotherSavage

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1420911/posts?q=1&;page=1

America’s Most Dangerous Gang
POLICE magazine ^ | Shelly Feuer Domash

Posted on 06/11/2005 8:54:12 AM PDT by Calpernia

[In this thread, Calpernia has posted much of her research on gangs and you will want to save it, or I did for my own files.
granny]

http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_7727473?source=most_viewed

El Paso airport luggage thefts high, analysis shows
By Vic Kolenc / El Paso Times
Article Launched: 12/15/2007 12:00:00 AM MST

http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_7727470?source=most_viewed

County sues businessman also linked to FBI case
By Ramon Bracamontes / El Paso Times
Article Launched: 12/15/2007 12:00:00 AM MST

http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_7733694

Homeless, hookers signed blank tickets, police find
Associated Press
Article Launched: 12/16/2007 12:00:00 AM MST

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1939991/posts

Germany expelled Iran diplomat for atomic work
Khaleej Times Online ^ | December 15 2007 | Reuters

Posted on 12/15/2007 11:30:14 AM PST by knighthawk

BERLIN - Germany expelled an Iranian diplomat in July after he tried to acquire components for the Islamic Republic’s disputed nuclear programme, a magazine reported on Saturday.

The Der Spiegel weekly said the expulsion came after the diplomat contacted a specialist firm in the southern state of Bavaria to buy a systems control component which would be essential in the enrichment of uranium.

Norway: A letter from Mullah Krekar
Controversial mullah Krekar, former leader of Islamist guerrilla group Ansar al-Islam, and now eligible for deportation after a Supreme Court ruling, has written an open letter in Aftenposten.

Krekar, born Najmuddin Faraj Ahmad in Iraq, has been assessed a threat to national security and can be deported for violation of immigration laws in Norway for repeated visits to his homeland. His expulsion remains on hold as Norwegian authorities do not yet consider him to be assured of a safe return.

In a lengthy article in newspaper Aftenposten on Friday, Krekar made an outspoken appeal, that included a wish for continued peace in Norway, arguments that his only sins here have been those of unreserved use of freedom of speech, and that his presence may be a guarantee against terrorism in the country.

Krekar asked that Norwegians spare a Christmas thought for the millions of Iraqi and Afghan children who do not have peace, and who have had their “oil stolen from them and sucked away by invasion companies”.

Freedom of speech

Krekar also asked that he be spared a thought: “For no other refugee in this country has suffered such foul accusations as I. Just because I refuse to lie, refuse to give up my right to freedom of speech!”

Krekar went on to say that he has learned much about democracy, human rights, freedom of speech and equality of status from his time in Norway, and says that this is in harmony with Islam and the Koran as he understands them. He said that the controversy and threats of legal prosecution each time he utters unpopular opinions has given him a feeling of public double standards and confusion.

Krekar claimed that his constant clashes are due to his refusal to say one thing in private and another in public.

“Islam forbids me to lie! I am also not ashamed of my opinions. Have my opinions hurt anyone? Well, is not freedom of speech painful, and have not the unpopular opinions of the individual a place in the diversity of the home of freedom?” Krekar asks.

Terrorism

Krekar also discussed the inability of legal proceedings to prove he had ever committed a punishable offense, and wondered why he should commit one in the future. He also discussed terrorism, calling it a word robbed of power by the modern media because of a “biased definition” applied to those fighting the USA.

“One cannot compare the explosion in Madrid or London’s suicide (bombers) with the resistance movement’s struggle in Iraq and Afghanistan! Because terrorism is war aimed at civilians. Islam forbids the killing of civilians, destruction of religious temples, churches, the cutting of trees and the extermination of animals. Therefore I hereby declare any action on Norwegian soil - terrorism. But mercenaries in Iraq are not civilians,” Krekar wrote.

Krekar said his view of Islam does not subscribe to the invasion of Europe, but for the liberation of Muslim nations. He said he had no ambitions in Norway, which he sees as a place of transit, until the time he can “return home for good, sit on a mountain in peaceful Kurdistan, and die as a good Muslim”.

Threat?

Krekar argued that he may be insurance against a possible terrorist attack on Norway, rather than a threat. He claimed an “inner feeling” about the way Islamist groups think today despite “no longer having physical links” to them, and said that many immigrants expected an attack in Oslo after Madrid and London. “My presence and my case were possibly the reasons the terrorist action did not take place,” Krekar wrote.

He finished with an appeal not to deliver him to Iraq, where torture and death would await. He advised against Norway signing oil contracts with northern Iraq, where this would be viewed as supporting the occupation when the USA eventually withdraws.

Repeating his stance that he will fight to liberate the world of Islam from the attack of the “American West”, Krekar concluded that he cannot be silent, which would mean failure in his duty as “a free-thinking Islamist activist”.

Source: Aftenposten (English)

—
Posted By Esther to Islam in Europe at 12/15/2007 03:00:00 PM __._,_.___

Islam In Europe

News and Opinions about the Muslim
and Islamic Community in Europe and the West

http://islamineurope.blogspot.com

Louisiana pipeline blast kills one

Fri Dec 14, 2007 7:56pm EST
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USN1456016620071215

HOUSTON (Reuters) - A motorist was killed and another was injured when
the
Columbia Gulf natural gas pipeline in northeast Louisiana exploded on
Friday
afternoon near an interstate highway, said a Louisiana State Police
spokeswoman.

continued.

from osint@yahoogroups.com

[about 6 miles of Highway 20, will remain closed until bridge is checked]

Your Black Muslim Bakery members linked to multiple crimes

Muslim bakery members linked to multiple crimes
Numerous investigations were under way at time editor was killed
mailto:jrichman@angnewspapers.com?subject=Inside Bay Area: Muslim
bakery
members linked to multiple crimes
By Josh Richman, STAFF WRITER
Article Last Updated: 12/09/2007 10:28:31 AM PST
http://www.insidebayarea.com/trivalleyherald/ci_7676303

At dawn the day after Chauncey Bailey was slain, about 200 officers
from
several East Bay police agencies raided the headquarters of Your Black
Muslim Bakery, a longtime Oakland community institution brought low by
financial ruin and allegations of violence.

continued....

Police tapes reveal suspect’s confession to Bailey slaying
Broussard says he shot Post editor three times ‘to be sure’
By Angela Hill, STAFF WRITER
Article Last Updated: 12/09/2007 02:37:29 AM PST
http://www.insidebayarea.com/trivalleyherald/ci_7676422

A journalist’s last day
Angela Hill, MEDIANEWS STAFF
Article Last Updated: 12/09/2007 06:57:37 PM PST

http://www.insidebayarea.com/trivalleyherald/ci_7677123

About the project
The Chauncey Bailey Project is a consortium of news organizations
dedicated
to continuing the reporting Bailey, editor of the Oakland Post, was
pursuing
when he was killed Aug. 2. For more information about the project or
its
collaborators, contact Dori J. Maynard of the Robert C. Maynard
Institute
for Journalism Education at 510-684-3071. The public can e-mail tips to
cbproject@bayareanewsgroup.com.

A journalist’s last day

http://extras.mnginteractive.com/live/media/site181/2007/1209/20071209_023702_finalsteps_120907_GALLERY.jpg

continued...........

from: osint@yahoogroups.com

http://www.defence.pk/forums/wmd-missiles/8710-threat-pakistans-nuclear-stability.html

The threat to Pakistan’s nuclear stability
Political fallout - The threat to Pakistan’s nuclear stability
By Andrew Koch and Kristin Rayhack
14 December 2007

On 28 November, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf stepped down as Pakistan’s army chief and handed over control to General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, former vice chief of army staff and a Musharraf loyalist. Musharraf was sworn in as a civilian president on 29 November in an effort to dispel a growing political crisis between him and the Supreme Court and save his relationship with the military, who felt increasingly undermined by Musharraf’s actions.

This unfolding political crisis has been compounded by increasing militancy in the country. Recently, pro-Taliban militants have successfully exercised and expanded their influence into the Swat Valley, a remote district 150 miles from Islamabad in the North West Frontier Province.

The jihadist takeover in the Swat Valley is exemplary of the pervasive situation in the tribal areas whereby militants are extending their influence and control beyond previous strongholds. While the troubles appear to be limited to the border region for now, the decrease in central government control over these areas has created a power vacuum that is being filled by jihadists. As this phenomenon increases in scope, concerns are mounting regarding the Pakistani government’s ability to address and contain the influence of radical Islamists if its secular forces remain split.

These factors, the political crisis and expanding militancy, have raised international concerns regarding the safety and security of Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal. Such concerns are compounded by a history of Pakistani nuclear indiscretions. Abdul Qadeer Khan, the nuclear scientist heralded as ‘the father of the Pakistani bomb’, was the head of a now infamous nuclear proliferation network that leaked sensitive atomic secrets. In addition, two Pakistani scientists met with Al-Qaeda members including Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan in 2000 to discuss the possibility of acquiring weapons of mass destruction.

Although all three factors are unrelated, and the prospect of a militant takeover of or Islamist government in Islamabad are remote, these incidents have raised concerns that, should Pakistan endure worsening political and security stability, individuals could take advantage and attempt to transfer sensitive nuclear information or sell fissile material. However, while some of this concern is justified, it is distinct from the current political and ideological crisis unfolding in Pakistan, and there is little reason for the heightened anxiety.

COMMENTS:

Just for the info. A meeting was held today with top officials from the nuclear department, army, and strategic force to discuss this issue.

They have also warned media to not create a “baseless hype” and assure that they are safer, and will be discussing on the issue to make it even more secretive, and highly protective.

- - - - -

And India Contributing in a Positive Way on “baseless Hype” !!!

Pakistan nukes safely guarded, says Narayanan

New Delhi (PTI): India believes that nuclear weapons in Pakistan are “pretty safely guarded” making it “extremely difficult” of it falling in “wrong hands” with the US paying “very close attention” to the issue.

It also said that the government has a contingency plan in place to deal with a situation of Pakistani nuclear weapons getting used by radical elements in the neighbouring country.

“It is extremely difficult for any outside element just walking away with a readymade nuclear device,” National Security Adviser (NSA) M K Narayanan told Karan Thapar on India Tonight programme on CNBC TV 18.

It is not easy for just a couple of people to manage a nuclear device, he said adding that even as National Security Adviser “I cannot activate this on my own.”

“I would therefore say it (Pakistani nuclear arsenal) is relatively safe or I would say it is largely safe,” he said.
Fears of nuclear weapons falling in the hands of radicals has “activated” the American government to pay “very close attention” to the matter, the Narayanan said.

“... they are quite satisfied with the checks and balances which are adequate,” he said.

It is no secret that there has been infiltration of radical elements in the armed forces, he said adding that he believed that during Pervez Musharraf’s tenure as Army Chief and now under General Ashfaq Kiyani steps have been taken against them.

“There are certain secret radical elements but I think it is a remote possibility (of Pakistan nuclear weapons falling in the hands of radicals),” Narayanan said.

Narayanan sought to allay apprehensions on threat posed by Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal to India and said that the government has a contingency plan in place to deal with such a situation.

“We have a contingency plan in place (to deal with a situation) of nukes falling into wrong hands and getting used by elements in Pakistan,” he said.

Narayanan suspected that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to be behind the recent failed plot to kidnap Congress MP Rahul Gandhi.

The interrogation of the Jaish-e-Muhammad terrorists in Lucknow recently was “most revealing”, he said.

It was certain that without official patronage it is difficult to conceive of such a detailed plan, he said.

“At some stage there could be an ISI hand,” Narayanan said but sought to absolve the political class from being involved in the conspiracy.

On the threat of infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir by terrorists, he said the Line of Control has become difficult to penetrate but admitted that the presence of terror launch pads across the LoC remained a cause of concern.

“There are enough (terror launching pads) for us to be concerned,” the NSA said.

Narayanan said he did not think every terrorist incident in India has links to the political class or military in Pakistan.

The Hindu News Update Service

Under no circumstances would anyone be allowed to take away our weapons. We will defend the honor and integrity of Pakistan till the very last drop of our blood.

Who persuaded Iran to buy Pakistan nuclear technology? it wasn’t Abdul Qadeer Khan but a German: book

BERLIN (December 13 2007): It was a German man who approached Iran in the late 1980s to tout the idea of buying nuclear weapons technology from a Pakistani-led nuclear black market, a new book claims.

“The Nuclear Jihadist” by Douglas Frantz and Catherine Collins tells the story of how Pakistan’s nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan developed an “intricate supply network aimed at skirting sanctions and peddling uranium enrichment technology.”

Khan’s network supplied Libya, Iran and North Korea with restricted nuclear machinery and designs. Tehran’s dealings with the network at the time remain one of the main riddles the UN nuclear watchdog in Vienna is trying urgently to solve.

The book by the US journalists says it was not Khan but German businessman Gotthard Lerch who persuaded Iran in 1987 to consider enriching uranium - a process of purifying it for use in power plants or weapons.

Lerch has been accused by German prosecutors of helping Khan supply Libya with restricted nuclear technology although he was never charged in connection with Iran and a trial on other charges was suspended last year.

Frantz and Collins say a physicist from Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation visited Lerch’s office in Switzerland in 1987 to buy conventional weapons for Iran’s war against Iraq.

Lerch agreed to fill the order but insisted that the Iranian watch a promotional film about his nuclear inventory. Lerch had known Khan from his days working at a German vacuum firm that sold Pakistan vacuum pumps for its enrichment programme. Several weeks later the Iranians said they were interested.

Lerch’s contacts with Iran came after Saddam Hussein’s Iraq began attacking Iranian troops with chemical weapons, which began to turn the tide of the long war against Tehran. Lerch met the Iranians in Zurich and then arranged a follow-up meeting in Dubai where, the authors write, Iran was expected to pay $10 million as a down-payment for several Pakistani enrichment centrifuges from Khan and designs.

Among the items the Iranians received in Dubai were partial instructions for making the core of an atomic weapon. According to the book, Lerch received $3 million of the $10 million while Khan got $2 million. The rest went to other middlemen, including another German and an Islamabad dentist.

After he was extradited from Switzerland, Lerch was tried for violating export rules in Germany last year. But the trial was suspended and it is unclear if a new trial will take place. One of Lerch’s lawyers, Gottfried Reims, said he was not in a position to comment on the allegations in the book. A spokesman for Germany’s Federal Prosecutor’s Office said he could not comment on the book’s specific allegations.

Given that Lerch’s contacts with the Iranians took place 20 years ago, the statute of limitations on any export violations would have expired. A German diplomat told Reuters it was unlikely Lerch would ever be charged in connection with Iran.

In September, German engineer Gerhard Wisser pleaded guilty in South Africa to export violations in selling components to Libya and Pakistan that could be used in nuclear weapons.

In 1999, German engineer Karl-Heinz Schaab was convicted of treason for selling nuclear technology to the Iraqi government. The latest US National Intelligence Estimate says Iran halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003. Tehran says it has no interest in acquiring atomic weapons but is pursuing nuclear power to generate electricity.

Business Recorder [Pakistan’s First Financial Daily]

Wars can be prevented just as surely as they can be provoked...and we who fail to prevent them, must share the guilt for the dead. -General Omar N. Bradley-(1893-1982)

http://www.defence.pk/forums/wmd-missiles/8690-who-persuaded-iran-buy-pakistan-nuclear-technology-wasnt-abdul-qadeer-khan-bu.html

http://www.defence.pk/forums/wmd-missiles/8717-nca-warns-against-n-misadventure.html

NCA warns against N-misadventure
Saturday, December 15, 2007

RAWALPINDI: The first meeting of the National Command Authority (NCA) warned on Friday that Pakistan would defend its strategic interests and assets against any ‘misadventure’.

The meeting also took exception to the ‘propaganda’ being spread by international media against the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear assets and said the security of all such assets had been ensured through a foolproof system.

Defence sources told Daily Times that a sustained and well-planned campaign of international think-tanks and media has been pressuring Pakistan to ensure the security of its nuclear assets. “The campaign has persisted despite the government’s overt and covert assurances that its weapons are safe and beyond the reach of terrorists and extremists,” they said.

An ordinance was promulgated on Thursday to streamline the command and control system for nuclear assets. The new law makes President Pervez Musharraf the head of the NCA, which is responsible for all aspects of strategic organisations and weapons. The sources said the NCA met a day after the ordinance’s promulgation to spell out its features.

Capable: Chairing the NCA meeting here, President Musharraf said Pakistan was capable of defending its interests and cautioned those contemplating ‘misadventures’. He said the country’s nuclear assets are in safe hands, adding that Pakistan is a responsible nuclear state and knows how to safeguard its nuclear assets, reported Online.

Meanwhile, an Inter-Services Public Relations statement said the NCA meeting was attended by caretaker Prime Minister Mohammadmian Soomro, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee Chairman General Tariq Majid, Army Chief Ashfaq Kayani, Naval Chief Muhammad Afzal Tahir, Air Chief Tanvir Mahmud, Foreign Affairs Minister Inamul Haq, Interior Minister Lt Gen (r) Hamid Nawaz, Finance Minister Dr Salman Shah, and Defence Minister Saleem Abbas Jilani.

Developments reviewed: It said the NCA reviewed the development of various projects related to Pakistan’s strategic capability and expressed satisfaction over the pace of development. It approved a number of proposals for strengthening the deterrence capability of the country.

Separately, Army spokesman Major General Waheed Arshad said that the ordinance had been promulgated before the polls because, while there was consensus among all political parties on the issue of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, the authorities wanted to put the NCA on a firm legal footing before the elections. “There is a transition in process and the country is returning to full democracy, so whatever things were left to be done are being done,” AP quoted Arshad as saying. “No government would like to change it,” he added. sajjad malik/agencies

Daily Times
mms://dawn.tvpakistan.com/dawnnews - Watch Dawn News on the web.

http://docstalk.blogspot.com/2007/12/syria-prepares-its-grand-comeback.html

Saturday, December 15, 2007
Syria prepares its grand comeback

Michael Young

To better understand the assassination of General Francois Hajj on Wednesday morning in Baabda, one has to view it against the backdrop of the statement by Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa a day earlier. At a conference of Syria’s National Progressive Front, Sharaa declared that “Syria’s friends in Lebanon represent a true force on the ground, and no one in Lebanon is able to harm Syria and Lebanon.” One of the things most disturbing to the Syrians about the decision of the March 14 coalition to support army commander Michel Suleiman was that this was apparently preceded by commitments on both sides. One such commitment appeared to have been agreement on a new army commander, or a list of potential army commanders. Hajj, despite the opposition’s effort to paint his killing as a blow against Michel Aoun, was actually Suleiman’s man and was reportedly one of those on the list.

The message, therefore, was that for Suleiman to become president, he has to, first, renounce all previous commitments reached with March 14 and enter into new arrangements with the “true force on the ground.”

The Syrians are accelerating their return to Lebanon, and the disastrous French initiative on the presidency only confirmed to them that the international community would readily engage Syria on Lebanon. As for the United States, it has been comatose - caught between the constraints of the Annapolis process (if a process it is) and the need to reduce pressure on Iran after the release last week of a National Intelligence Estimate affirming that Tehran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003. The French and the Americans have been neutralized in Lebanon, and while this can be reversed, Sharaa’s remarks showed the extent of Syrian confidence.

Things are more complicated with regard to the Arab states. Saudi-Syrian hostility continues unabated, and a paramount Syrian objective in imposing a Lebanese presidential vacuum is to gain leverage for Syria’s triumphal re-entry into the Arab fold. The intended date is next March, when the Arab League summit is to be held in Damascus. The Assad regime would like the gathering to consecrate its return to regional prominence, and Lebanon is Syria’s hostage to bring that about.

For the moment leading Arab states aren’t playing ball. At a press conference on Tuesday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu al-Gheit shot down reports that a mini-summit was to be held soon between Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Palestinians. He also downplayed prospects for a regional peace summit in Moscow next year, which the Syrians hope will place the Golan Heights issue back on the table.

But will the Arabs stick to their guns? Syria humiliated the Saudis and Egyptians by undermining their separate efforts to sponsor an inter-Palestinian settlement. Damascus is now blocking Suleiman’s arrival in Lebanon, although both Egypt and Saudi Arabia approve of the general. Less clear, however, are the calculations of King Abdullah of Jordan. His apparent engagement of the Assad regime suggests he is willing to be more flexible on a Syrian role in Lebanon if this can help calm the Palestinian front, thereby buying Jordan a measure of domestic stability.

Whichever way you cut it, Lebanon is in for many more months of anxiety. However, the imbroglio over the presidency makes you wonder whether the Syrians have a clear-cut presidential strategy. Syria has impeded the election of a bevy of allies, likely friends, or fellow travelers who were acceptable to March 14, including Robert Ghanem, Michel Edde, and Suleiman. Their treatment of Suleiman in particular reveals that they don’t quite trust the Lebanese Army, and that they certainly don’t want a new army commander who might reverse pervasive Syrian infiltration of the senior officer corps.

Creating a vacuum is not a strategy; it is a tactic designed to bring someone to power on Syria’s terms. Damascus wants exclusivity in the next Lebanese president, but without its armed forces in the country to impose this, a new officeholder might prove too independent. That’s why we should doubt Sharaa when he says, as he did on Tuesday, that Syria does not intend to return to Lebanon “militarily or in a security capacity.” But it’s also why, in believing that they cannot dominate the Lebanese without an armed presence, the Syrians might be overreaching. The Syrian move into Lebanon in 1976 required a regional and international consensus, as well as an Israeli green light, and was formalized by the Arab League. That’s unlikely to happen again today. In forcing the issue, doesn’t the Assad regime risk provoking a powerful local, regional and international backlash that might ultimately scuttle its plans?

Then again, a direr scenario is just as plausible. What remains of the Cedar Revolution is under mortal threat, with March 14 increasingly disoriented and without imagination. The coalition’s Christian policy is a shambles, allowing Michel Aoun to continue conning many of his coreligionists into believing that he best represents their interests, even as he perpetuates the presidential vacuum to undermine Suleiman. Amid such chaos, no wonder the Syrians feel they are but a step away from reversing the losses of 2005. And so repulsive are the divisions within Lebanese society that we must seriously worry that the West and the Arab states will soon quietly agree to subcontract Lebanon to Syria again.

That’s what the Syrians are hoping. They are convinced that the logic of the gun will prevail. When a substantial proportion of Lebanese society is either actively or objectively working on Syria’s behalf, it’s difficult to blame them. Yesterday was the second anniversary of Gebran Tueni’s assassination. It is dawning upon us, certainly too late, that he and all the other murder victims of the past two years probably went in vain. That’s no surprise when so many Lebanese are taking their country in vain.

Posted by GS Don Morris, Ph.D.