Overall, lower gold prices, a stronger dollar against the euro, lower long-term bond yields, and rising equity valuations are indisputable hallmarks of a disinflationary environment — not a resurgence of inflation.
And you believe those trends will continue if the fed eases on the funds rate?
Deflation causes and is caused by a collapse of credit, which leads almost immediately to a shrinking of the money supply, typically at some point after credit has expanded too quickly for too long -- the original vicious circle.
However, you can do better, far better, because Mr. Friedman had it right. ''Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon''.
Guess what? So is deflation. Sharp contractions in credit by definition cause contractions in the available money supply.
Gold has sod-all to do with this process, as the world once ''learned'' to its regret...and, kept repeating this error via Bretton Woods, which was just an attempt to postpone the next evil day of reckoning.
The net of it all is: both inflation and deflation are ONLY ever the result of various gov't policies. Right now, there's an enormous gov't bias against deflation and for inflation, because politicians will LOSE their jobs during a severe deflation, but might be able to keep them (viz, the Regress during 1974-1980) during a severe inflation.