Hurricane Dean Live Thread Part III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 20 August 2007 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is steaming toward the Yucatan Peninsula today, packing winds over 150 mph. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft aborted its mission Monday morning due to equipment problems. The storm is expected to attain catastrophic Category 5 status today. The Cayman Islands have been spared the brunt of the storm's winds as Dean passed 125 miles south of Grand Cayman.

Jamaica continues to assess damage to its infrastructure after Dean uprooted trees, knocked down power lines, stripped off roofs, and dumped up to 20 inches of rain, causing mudslides in the mountains. The government of Jamaica has declared a month-long state of emergency. Haiti has reported four fatalities. The Dominican Republic reported a 20ft storm surge. Martinique lost its banana crops. Additional details are scarce at this point due to extensive power outages.

Alcoa suspended aluminum production in Jamaica. Mexico evacuated thousands of workers from oil platforms. Texas mobilized the National Guard, opened emergency operations centers and moved inmates inland from three prisons in advance of the storm.

Space shuttle Endeavour is returning home Tuesday, a day early due to Hurricane Dean.

In other storm news, the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin caused massive rains and flooding in Oklahoma Sunday. Two people have drowned, and three are reported missing at this time.

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Hurricane Dean Thread II
Hurricane Dean Thread I

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

The zoom on that pic is incredible.

[CindyDawg]

She just made me laugh. Our visitor seemed irritated that people “just lounging around” but wait she saw someone working:’)

[NautiNurse]

Good point. They won all sorts of pat-their-own-backs awards for their Katrina coverage. Need that fix again.

[txhurl]

The only thing left I find to give y'all problems is this MM5 FSU experimental model.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2007082000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[tutstar]

anyone noticing some black dots on those pics at high res? Do the shuttle/ISS windows need cleaning or is that debris flying around in the clouds?

[NonValueAdded]

"Is this bad though? It tells people to stay on guard and don't wait until the last minute to try to get out."

CD, the problem is that repeated false alarms have the opposite effect. After a couple of evacuations here on the barrier islands on the east coast of Florida when the storms stayed offshore (Floyd?) or made a last minute turn, people stopped listening. It is hard to spend big bucks on a hotel room, burn a lot of gasoline stuck in traffic jams and have the weather actually turn out to be better than normal because the storm sucked the moisture out of the air.

No, it is far better for local emergency management and local media to establish credibility so that people will listen when they really need to.

[Old Professer]

Aren’t we harboring a number of Belize refugees here from a few years back when another storm wiped out the coastal area?

[SouthTexas]

anyone noticing some black dots on those pics at high res

Those are our missing weather buoys!

joking

[blam]

Excellent map/video. The ‘eye’ went directly over Oklahoma City.

[mathluv]

I wanted to learn/see more about the flooding in OK, but once geraldo came on, my tv would not stay on FNC. I was late getting to Hannity's America because I did not want to risk having to listen to that drama queen.

Enjoyed Rush on the 1/2 hour news hour.

[NautiNurse]

I wondered the same thing.

[Old Professer]

Probably a strong cluster of cells punching through the tropopause and loaded with hail, causing shadows all around their form.

[NautiNurse]

Governor Perry presser just now - he’s still erring on the side of extreme caution. 3000 busses mobilized, asking that people have their evacuation plans in order, 3 day supplies of water, medications, etc.

[hummingbird]

anyone noticing some black dots on those pics at high res? Do the shuttle/ISS windows need cleaning or is that debris flying around in the clouds?

Dorothy, Toto, the Bad Witch and all those Flying Monkeys.

Awesome photo!

[CindyDawg]

When a storm is out there we should all be on our guard and be thankful it was a false alarm . I understand what you are saying though. I got so frustrated last year. I was constanly preparing and then getting back to normal for nothing. Was it really though? Should I should have been counting my blessings instead? This year I find myself thinking, forget about Dean. It isn’t coming here. What if it does though? I’m ready. Why? Because all I hear is it’s “probably” going to Mexico but ..... reminding people of the buts isn’t a bad thing IMO

[CindyDawg]

Yeah, I was watching. Something is bothering him.

[Gator101]

The wife and I just honeymooned slightly north of Tulum last month at the Dreams resort. It is right on the beach and I imagine it’s going to get real rough for them.

I think that the Mayan ruins in Tulum are up high enough on the cliffs that they will be spared the storm surge. Now that I think of it, that is probably part of the reason they have survived as long as they have in that hurricane prone region.

[SouthTexas]

Never, ever, get tired of preparation. I was taught from little on, hurricane season starts June 1st, that is when you get ready. ;)

Are ya'll still in pending mode?

[NonValueAdded]

Reminding, yes, but misinforming "'It's coming to Texas,' says a Fox newsbabe" is not.

This said as I just helped raise the alarm for Invest92I with the extension of two of three model tracks headed for Central Florida. (the good news being that tracks almost always change and it is better to be pointed at early than 12 hours before landfall). Vigilance is good; panic is bad.

[CindyDawg]

Oh, ok. I didn’t see that. Everyone I’ve watched have said Mexico kind of hesitantly and then mentioned the buts. If she said that then I would call Fox up on it and ask how they can be a 100 % sure? I would worry about Mexicans watching and thinking they were in the clear.