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Posted on 08/20/2007 8:12:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is steaming toward the Yucatan Peninsula today, packing winds over 150 mph. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft aborted its mission Monday morning due to equipment problems. The storm is expected to attain catastrophic Category 5 status today. The Cayman Islands have been spared the brunt of the storm's winds as Dean passed 125 miles south of Grand Cayman.
Jamaica continues to assess damage to its infrastructure after Dean uprooted trees, knocked down power lines, stripped off roofs, and dumped up to 20 inches of rain, causing mudslides in the mountains. The government of Jamaica has declared a month-long state of emergency. Haiti has reported four fatalities. The Dominican Republic reported a 20ft storm surge. Martinique lost its banana crops. Additional details are scarce at this point due to extensive power outages.
Alcoa suspended aluminum production in Jamaica. Mexico evacuated thousands of workers from oil platforms. Texas mobilized the National Guard, opened emergency operations centers and moved inmates inland from three prisons in advance of the storm.
Space shuttle Endeavour is returning home Tuesday, a day early due to Hurricane Dean.
In other storm news, the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin caused massive rains and flooding in Oklahoma Sunday. Two people have drowned, and three are reported missing at this time.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Cancun Radar Caution- very prone to overload with high traffic
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Cayman One Radio Nice music mix, and hourly news
Hurricane Dean Thread II
Hurricane Dean Thread I
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
And this puppy is well north of the track.
I was so mad, when they sank that truck. It needed to be in a museum somewhere.
Right now Shep has on more purple eyeshadow and thicker eyeliner and mascara than I’ve ever seen him wear. Must have a date later.
THANKS! GREAT PIC! Hope they fulfill all of their dreams! Fast track ‘em to citizenship and sign ‘em up to vote!
Gov. Perry Updates Texas Preparedness Efforts for Hurricane Dean
http://www.governor.state.tx.us/divisions/press/pressreleases/PressRelease.2007-08-20.0614
Resources deployed to Valley Region in Anticipation of Effects from Hurricane Dean
http://www.governor.state.tx.us/divisions/press/pressreleases/PressRelease.2007-08-19.0536
These people are fighting for their life and want sanctuary...they are not crossing borders to take jobs from our citizens.
If I wanted a preaching too, I would go to church or find my husband. Read my posts again.
000 URNT12 KNHC 201945
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/192320Z
B. 18 DEG 05 MIN N
083 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2399 M
D. 120 KTS
E. 060 DEG 15 NM
F. 151 DEG 151 KTS
G. 060 DEG 15 NM
H. 918 MB
I. 9 C/ 3037 M
J. 19 C/ 3043 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.03/1 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 15
MAX FL WIND 151 KT NE QUAD 1918Z
oops
God Bless Us!
Motion over that 1:43 - 280 degrees at 19.5 mph.
I’ve done that once or twice myself :-)
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 20, 2007
Communications problems are preventing the receipt of most data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft this afternoon...although a 1930z vortex fix was received. At that time the minimum pressure was 918 mb...with maximum flight-level winds of 151 kt. Earlier in the flight...a peak SFMR wind of 123 kt was observed. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 127 kt at 18z. Based on these data...the initial intensity is held at 130 kt. All objective guidance shows additional intensification over the deep warm waters of the western Caribbean...and Dean could reach category five status before making landfall. A 15z microwave pass shows a partial outer eyewall...but this will probably not have enough time to induce any weakening before landfall. Dean is expected to maintain hurricane strength as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula...and approach major hurricane strength again before its final landfall. The initial motion is 275/17. Dean in expected to maintain a track between west and west-northwest to the south of the westward- building subtropical ridge. Most of the dynamical model guidance has trended south and the official forecast has been nudged southward. All the large-scale models take the mid-level vorticity of Dean west-southwestward across the mountains of central Mexico...and the official forecast now shows a leftward Bend of the track after final landfall. I do not actually expect a well- defined surface circulation to exist at 72 hours...but a point is provided so that it doesn't appear that the track ends in the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 20/2100z 18.2n 84.2w 130 kt 12hr VT 21/0600z 18.5n 86.7w 140 kt 24hr VT 21/1800z 19.3n 90.2w 75 kt...inland 36hr VT 22/0600z 20.2n 93.6w 85 kt 48hr VT 22/1800z 21.0n 97.0w 95 kt 72hr VT 23/1800z 21.5n 103.0w 30 kt...inland 96hr VT 24/1800z...dissipated $$ forecaster Franklin
They don’t trust the data...keeping the storm at Cat 4.
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 20, 2007
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean expected to strike the Yucatan tonight...could reach category five before landfall... At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from west of ciudad del Carmen to Veracruz. At 5 PM EDT...all warnings in the Cayman Islands are discontinued. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the following provinces of Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...and Isla de la Juventud. At 5 PM EDT...all other watches and warnings in Cuba are discontinued. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the entire coastline of Belize...along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from the Belize/Mexico border northward to Cancun...and along the West Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from south of Progresso southward to ciudad del Carmen. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect on the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Cancun to Progresso. Interests elsewhere in the southern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Dean. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 18.2 north...longitude 84.2 west or about 270 miles... 435 km...east of Chetumal Mexico. Dean is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and and a westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. On this track the center of the hurricane is expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula very early Tuesday morning. However...conditions will begin to deteriorate along the coastline this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is expected later today...and Dean is likely to become a category five hurricane prior to making landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft was 918 mb...27.11 inches. Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula...Belize...Guatemala...and northern Honduras...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Coastal storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is possible in the Cayman Islands. Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels is possible near and to the north of where Dean makes landfall along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...18.2 N...84.2 W. Movement toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure...918 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Franklin/Rhome
Which just means they’ll be doing another special discussion at about 6:30 (or when the next VDM makes it through).
Disturbance 92L needs to be watched
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, "Invest 92L", has changed little in organization today. Wind shear is about 5-10 knots in this region, and an upper-level anticyclone has formed over 92L. This is a very favorable environment for intensification, should 92L start to get organized. The disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. It is moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph, and will be near the central Bahamas by Wednesday, and the east coast of Florida by Friday. It does not appear that any troughs strong enough to recurve 92L will swing by until Saturday at the earliest.
I have sent so many emails to FNC about Geraldo “The Fake”. They now have me on email block. Someone, likes him. Go figure......
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