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Posted on 08/20/2007 8:12:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is steaming toward the Yucatan Peninsula today, packing winds over 150 mph. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft aborted its mission Monday morning due to equipment problems. The storm is expected to attain catastrophic Category 5 status today. The Cayman Islands have been spared the brunt of the storm's winds as Dean passed 125 miles south of Grand Cayman.
Jamaica continues to assess damage to its infrastructure after Dean uprooted trees, knocked down power lines, stripped off roofs, and dumped up to 20 inches of rain, causing mudslides in the mountains. The government of Jamaica has declared a month-long state of emergency. Haiti has reported four fatalities. The Dominican Republic reported a 20ft storm surge. Martinique lost its banana crops. Additional details are scarce at this point due to extensive power outages.
Alcoa suspended aluminum production in Jamaica. Mexico evacuated thousands of workers from oil platforms. Texas mobilized the National Guard, opened emergency operations centers and moved inmates inland from three prisons in advance of the storm.
Space shuttle Endeavour is returning home Tuesday, a day early due to Hurricane Dean.
In other storm news, the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin caused massive rains and flooding in Oklahoma Sunday. Two people have drowned, and three are reported missing at this time.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Cancun Radar Caution- very prone to overload with high traffic
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Cayman One Radio Nice music mix, and hourly news
Hurricane Dean Thread II
Hurricane Dean Thread I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
You too?
Geraldo who?
FOX needs to test Gerald Rivers aka Geraldo Rivera for something. The man is seriously demented. And no longer credible.
Wonder if he’ll stand out in the gale like he did the last time?
Yes. That’s why I’ve been trying to figure out the potential situation. Besides storm surge directly affecting Texas, it also occurred to me that he might be anticipating a massive surge of storm ravaged Mexicans fleeing across the border. I just don’t see rainfall causing the transfer inland of inmates from three prisons and 3000 busses.
Amazing! Incredible picture! I’ve gone through a few of these and it is frightening. Pray for those in its’ path.
Not that I’m wishing for one, but I’d like to see the stats as a Cat-5 walks straight over a buoy - one thats working that is.
I’m not sure a working buoy maintains that description with a direct hit from a Cat 5.
Wow impressive NN!
One cannot assume it will cross the Yucatan and stay on course. Anything can happen once it encounters such a large land mass.
A rush to the border from Mexicans shouldn’t cause him to act so scared though. BC is tightening up. I’m concerned about terrorists using it as an opportunity.
Something just doesn’t smell right. It’s like we are ready for something big and just waiting for the word.
When he gets something in his head he’s one track and I thought that was probably it until I saw that last press release. Somethings up IMO.
Sorry, I should not have jumped on you. It’s just a sensitive point for me.
:)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2007082000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Dean kinda wobbled N lately in the sats, maybe Perry has faith in this MM5 model.
What, you have no faith in 42059, the SS Minnow? :-)
000 URNT12 KNHC 201801 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 20/17:39:20Z B. 18 deg 00 min N 083 deg 09 min W C. NA mb 2442 m D. 123 kt E. 307 deg 11 nm F. 031 deg 140 kt G. 308 deg 010 nm H. 924 mb I. 9 C/ 3039 m J. 19 C/ 3046 m K. 18 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C18 N. 12345/ O. 0.02 / 4 nm P. AF303 1404A DEAN OB 08 MAX FL WIND 140 KT NW QUAD 17:36:00 Z
Motion between 1:16 am EDT and 1:39 pm 278 degrees at 19.6 mph.
Any guesses on whether we'll have an update to the intermediate advisory before 5 pm (the 2 pm still has the winds at 150 mph)?
He (Dean) maybe moving too fast to suck up enough of that warm water to push him over the Cat 5 threshold or drop the pressure anymore.
Thoughts?
Buoy 42059, a NOMAD, is bobbing along quite nicely in light winds and 3.9’ seas.
Hope she stays safe for the rest of the season - since it appears they never get replaced.
Thoughts?
Dunno. I do know that every time Dean's come close to 5, he's had an eyewall replacement cycle. Doesn't look like he'll have that limitation this time.
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on August 20, 2007
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean moving westward toward the Yucatan Peninsula... At 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...the government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the entire coastline of Belize...along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from the Belize/Mexico border northward to Cancun...and along the West Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from south of Progresso southward to ciudad del Carmen. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect on the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Cancun to Progresso. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of eastern Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the following provinces of Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus... Cienfuegos... Matanzas...and Isla de la Juventud. Interests elsewhere in the southern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Dean. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 18.0 north...longitude 83.2 west or about 330 miles...530 km...east of Belize City. Dean is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and a westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. On this track the center of the hurricane is expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula very early Tuesday morning. However...conditions will begin to deteriorate along the coastline well in advance of the arrival of the center. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is expected later today...and Dean is likely to become a category five hurricane prior to making landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb...27.29 inches. Coastal storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is possible in the Cayman Islands. Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels is possible near and to the north of where Dean makes landfall along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Dean is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches over Jamaica with storm total rainfall of up to 20 inches. Storm total amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over the Yucatan Peninsula...Belize...Guatemala...and northern Honduras... with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected over the Cayman Islands and Nicaragua. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...18.0 N...83.2 W. Movement toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure...924 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Franklin/Rhome
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