It is going to be -real- close.
Not scientific but I have seen many cases where a hurricane will shift to the right of it’s mean direction once the outer bands start interacting with a land mass.
Very evident when Katrina made the “miraculous” easterly jog away from New Orleans.
It is going to miss. It was going more nw, but it is going due west now and will definitely miss. The northern eyewall will come close, but even that may miss. Still, lots of reports of damage already that seem consistent with roughly 100 mph winds coming in from areas south and east of Kingston.