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Posted on 08/19/2007 3:52:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is moving west-northwest through the Caribbean Sea. The current NHC forecast track indicates Dean's powerful center core will pass just south of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and should skirt Jamaica's southern shoreline. The storm maintained strong Category 4 wind status through the night during an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the minimum pressure supports Category 5, and additional strengthening of winds is likely.
Tourists in Jamaica crowded airports Saturday to leave the island nation. Jamaican Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller addressed the Jamaican people, asking that everyone put aside their political differences and work together in advance of the imminent storm preceding Jamaica's general election scheduled for August 27. PM Miller announced that the Jamaican power grid and water would likely be shut down early Sunday morning in advance of the storm, and strongly urged citizens to seek shelter.
The United States and Barbados have pledged hurricane relief supplies and support to Jamaica as needed. No word yet from the United Nations...
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Atlantic Floater 1 Up-Date : Picked up speed?,,,due west...
place holder
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Atlantic Floater 1 : NOAA,,,Dean moved straight west in the last part of the up-date,,,worth a look on the NOAA site,,,
we’re getting some healthy bands of rain and some moderate gusts of wind here in Key West
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LOL,,,I know how ya’ll are,,,Under a hundred is a Breezzz;0)
Bump
(Just because....)
You’re right.
My morning TV news: “Some of the buses (the ones in SA I told you about) are on their way to McAllen now.”
Tough call about the evac. I might consider a priority based approach. Immobile or difficult-to-transport patients might get sent earlier, ambulatory patients evac might be put on hold for a little while longer. But that would have it’s disadvantages too.
Not that I’ll ever be govornor.
:^)
Wow, do they blame Karl Rove too? Or maybe they have a Rove of their own.
(rolling eyes)
Bump, thanks for that info.
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AP Excerpts:
” ... Dean, which had already killed eight people on its destructive march across the Caribbean, triggered evacuation calls from the Cayman Islands to Texas and forced the space shuttle to cut short its mission.
....
A state of emergency was declared in the resort town of South Padre Island. About 3,300 jail and prison inmates in the area were to be bused to correctional facilities elsewhere by Sunday night.
In Washington, R. David Paulison, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said up to 100,000 people might have to be evacuated from the state’s southeastern coast and its immigrant shantytowns near the Mexican border. The storm is on course for northern Mexico but could shift and hit the region around Brownsville, Texas, Paulison said.
....
Governments in Central America declared themselves on alert for the secondary effects of Dean. In Nicaragua, a 4- year-old girl died when a boat she was on sank Saturday night amid high winds and waves.
The hurricane created massive waves and surges high as 20 feet as it passed the Dominican Republic on Saturday, flooding roads and drowning a boy. At least two people were killed and about 150 homes were destroyed in Haiti. ...”
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>>>And it looks like Dean is going to Monkeyville after skirting the Caymans!
YW - see the excerpts in my above post.
G’morning. We’ve got AF300 going in now, so we’ll see what happened with the latest ERC. We’ll also have an intermediate advisory up in less than a half hour.
Hurricane Dean Discussion Number 29
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 20, 2007
Observations from the last Air Force hurricane hunter mission again indicated a concentric eyewall structure. The peak flight-level wind speed was 145 kt with an SFMR surface wind measurement of 125 kt in the northeast quadrant. A GPS dropsonde measured a surface wind speed of 133 kt in the same quadrant...but based on lower-layer averages from the sonde...this probably does not quite correspond to a 1-minute average surface wind. Based on all of these data the current intensity is set at 130 kt. Dean is moving over waters of extremely high oceanic heat content with weak shear and exhibits a classic upper-tropospheric outflow pattern. Dean certainly has the potential to strengthen into a category five hurricane within the next 24 hours and this is reflected in the official forecast. Weakening will occur due to the transit over the Yucatan Peninsula and the official forecast roughly follows the inland decay SHIPS model. Dean is forecast to restrengthen over the Bay of Campeche...and the GFDL and hwrf guidance suggest that it could regain major hurricane status before making its final landfall. This is not explicitly shown in the official forecast but additional strengthening will likely occur between the 48-hour forecast and landfall. Aircraft and satellite fixes over the past six hours or so give essentially a due westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed...270/18. As a mid- to upper-tropospheric cyclone continues moving westward over the western Gulf of Mexico...the flow to the south of a strengthening deep-layer high pressure system over the southeastern U.S. Will be the dominant steering mechanism for Dean. Therefore...a westward to west-northwestward motion is likely for the next couple of days. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one and is quite close to the GFDL...U.K. Met...NOGAPS...and GFS consensus and FSU superensemble tracks. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 20/0900z 17.7n 80.7w 130 kt 12hr VT 20/1800z 18.1n 83.5w 135 kt 24hr VT 21/0600z 18.8n 87.0w 140 kt 36hr VT 21/1800z 19.6n 90.5w 75 kt...inland 48hr VT 22/0600z 20.5n 94.0w 90 kt...Bay of Campeche 72hr VT 23/0600z 22.0n 100.5w 30 kt...inland 96hr VT 24/0600z...dissipated $$ forecaster Pasch/Brown
Mexico. Current thinking is at most the fringe will impact Texas.
They seem to be thinking Señor Dean will be dancing the Veracruzano rather than the Tampiqueño, as I had thought way “back in the day.” That is, *after* Monkeyville.
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 20, 2007
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean headed for the Yucatan Peninsula... A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize and the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Belize City northward to Cancun. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The Hurricane Warning for Jamaica will likely be discontinued later this morning. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch is in effect along the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Cancun to ciudad del Carmen. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of eastern Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the coast of Belize from south of Belize City southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the following provinces of Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana... Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus... Cienfuegos... Matanzas...and Isla de la Juventud. Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Dean. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 800 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 17.8 north...longitude 81.5 west or about 440 miles...710 km...east of Belize City. Dean is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and a westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. On this track the center of the hurricane will be very near the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale...and has the potential to reach category five strength within the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km. Grand Cayman reported wind gusts estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb...27.34 inches. Coastal storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is possible in the Cayman Islands. Storm surge flooding of 9 to 11 feet above normal tide levels is possible near and to the north of where Dean makes landfall along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Amounts of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected over the Cayman Islands. Additional amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over southern Haiti and eastern Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 800 am EDT position...17.8 N...81.5 W. Movement toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure...926 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 am EDT. $$ Forecaster Franklin
After the flurry of posts yesterday as Dean approached and passed by Jamaica it appears many are taking a deep breath and relaxing today as the hurricane approaches the Yucatan area.
Full on after it passes through and comes back out again in the Gulf.
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