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Posted on 08/19/2007 3:52:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is moving west-northwest through the Caribbean Sea. The current NHC forecast track indicates Dean's powerful center core will pass just south of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and should skirt Jamaica's southern shoreline. The storm maintained strong Category 4 wind status through the night during an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the minimum pressure supports Category 5, and additional strengthening of winds is likely.
Tourists in Jamaica crowded airports Saturday to leave the island nation. Jamaican Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller addressed the Jamaican people, asking that everyone put aside their political differences and work together in advance of the imminent storm preceding Jamaica's general election scheduled for August 27. PM Miller announced that the Jamaican power grid and water would likely be shut down early Sunday morning in advance of the storm, and strongly urged citizens to seek shelter.
The United States and Barbados have pledged hurricane relief supplies and support to Jamaica as needed. No word yet from the United Nations...
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images/Radar
Additional Resources:
StormCarib Island locals post their observations
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
There is a lot of discussion on the ULL on wunderground as well. You can see it is pulling moisture down out of Erin and tightening up in the looped visual data. It also has slowed down its approach to the Texas coast.
I was purposefully avoiding that argument, but I'm glad you brought it up. Posting hot linked graphics from private sites can lead to embarrassing results including the bandwidth theft monkey.
Another example will be evident in the next day or so--when the Cancun radar site crashes from high traffic. Happens every storm, and hoses up the thread for everybody when it gets posted.
Roger that. I’m just west of Austin at L. Travis in the Hill Country.
Doc hadn’t been on whenever I tuned in on 11, but he was tonight. He is a tad worried about the ULL and thinks that will be the spanner in the works, IF there is one. Otherwise, he’s glad the models are converging.
That ULL may not do much with Dean, but I am wondering if Dean is influencing it a little and that is the reason it is appearing to stall. The longer it spins, the more concerned I get. Erin dumped a buttload of rain here in SA and another TS would not be good.
Well, even Doc said it tonight, but more as an aside.
I also saw that the Guard has been told to stand down, here on the Upper Coast.
However, they have 1300 buses and 49 helicopters standing by in San Antonio for anyone and everyone in TX who needs help. That’s good to know.
As for me and mine, I continue making ice.
Trade places with ya!
Thank you for your local updates.
Interesting analysis. Thanks.
I can tell you from my analysis of the last 3 hrs since this was first noticed, no model accounts for this stall.
Personally, I think it will pass north of Guadalajara, and CdDeMX, too - the good news is that most of the Yucatan where it looks like Dean will traverse is all monkeys and jungle - not even any roads.
Was a little surprised, tho, to hear a bunch of tourists in Cancun on TV tonight saying they are being evac’ed from the hotels to Merida.
I wouldn’t have counted Merida totally out of the line of fire, myself, by any means. *but what do I know?*
Yeah, the wunderfolks are all over the ULL now. I’d say give it 12 hours (and so do they) and we’ll see.
Cayman One, the major radio station there, is playing Bridge Over Troubled Waters at the moment. You can’t write this stuff! They’re doing hourly newscasts and a rather nice music mix all night.
http://www.radiocayman.gov.ky/servlet/page?_pageid=1792&_dad=portal30&_schema=PORTAL30&_mode=3&orgcode=18
YW!
Nice site. Will add a link in the next thread.
I agree - however, I haven’t gotten a chance to go to the sites where I can take a good look to check it out, so I don’t have any educated commentary on it right now. Perhaps a little later.
Whatever it does, we might get it first before y’all, depending.
Right now, I’m more wanting some word from the Islands on the aftermath of Dean and seeing what’s happening in QRoo and Belize for preps.
When’s the last time you refreshed the water vapor loop?
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When you said,,,and the eye looks like a bullet-hole,,,
Tracking just a touch north of due west,,,
If I were stuck there, that is exactly where I would go.
Great people. Very friendly. Much safer than Cancun.
I just don't know how to sleep in a hammoc (sp?).
From what I've read, the experts don't think so. It surely looks interesting spinning there in the GOM.
LOL, that’s *all* I can do in a hammock! Two seconds in one and *lights out* for me.
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