Hurricane Dean Live Thread Part II

NOAA/NHC ^ | August 19, 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is moving west-northwest through the Caribbean Sea. The current NHC forecast track indicates Dean's powerful center core will pass just south of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and should skirt Jamaica's southern shoreline. The storm maintained strong Category 4 wind status through the night during an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the minimum pressure supports Category 5, and additional strengthening of winds is likely.

Tourists in Jamaica crowded airports Saturday to leave the island nation. Jamaican Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller addressed the Jamaican people, asking that everyone put aside their political differences and work together in advance of the imminent storm preceding Jamaica's general election scheduled for August 27. PM Miller announced that the Jamaican power grid and water would likely be shut down early Sunday morning in advance of the storm, and strongly urged citizens to seek shelter.

The United States and Barbados have pledged hurricane relief supplies and support to Jamaica as needed. No word yet from the United Nations...

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

Buoy Data West Caribbean

Storm Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images/Radar

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Jamaica Radar

Additional Resources:

StormCarib Island locals post their observations

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

[nwctwx]

;)

The GFDL brings it into the Gulf of California.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

I don’t think the eye will get closer than 30 miles from the coast,,,that won’t matter much to those folks,,,
The last sat-loop shows it heading back to the west...
watchin’ for the next wobble...

[steveegg]

The GFDL brings it into the Gulf of California.

Now we know why the GFDL's so "accurate"; if it covers every situation over the course of a hurricane's life, one of those HAS to be right.

[Milwaukee_Guy]

Yes it is the ham radio station located at the National Hurricane Center.

I used to do this for the Skywarn Tornado nets based at the Milwaukee/Sullivan NWSFO.

What you’re hearing is the Big Kahuna of Amateur Radio severe weather nets.

Way Cool!

[nwctwx]

click the thumbnail, here's a recent 3 image loop -- looks about as good as it has whole cycle. too bad the plane left.. it's feeding off the warmest water in the atlantic right now.

[BenLurkin]

I hope it moves right over Mexico and then turns up to California del Norte.

We need the rain.

[getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL]

Very cool, indeed.

[nwctwx]

I’d be somewhat shocked if it reformed on the Pacific side given the track it would take. Never know though..

[eyedigress]

I’m new to thread today but hope you have some insight. What is the forcast prediction for Guadalajara?

[getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL]

Wow 30 ft. waves on the east side!

[No Blue States]

I hope youre right, every mile counts.

[eyedigress]

Blame it on a monsoon wind, that’s what it is. You deserve the rain.

[SauronOfMordor]

Im predicting the eye will graze the south shore or come close. For an island 60 miles by 120 miles long thats going to hurt.

For a storm that big (currently Cat 4), it wont make a big difference. They are already being hit by the outer part and given the building practices (outside tourist areas), there will probably be a lot of damage and suffering

[SouthTexas]

So does NOGAPS and BAMM.

BAM is new grandson's initials.:)

[Milwaukee_Guy]

“I’m new to thread today but hope you have some insight. What is the forecast prediction for Guadalajara?”

Welcome!

Go straight to the source,

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

TANKS,,,that’s the loop I’ve got up,,,just a touch north of due west now,,,waiting for the up-date...

[silentknight]

Lot of damage reports and other info being posted here - updates almost by the minute

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=140197&st=460

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Accuweather on Dean's impact on jamica:

Destructive Hurricane Dean is bearing down on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Meanwhile, President Bush has signed an unusual pre-disaster declaration for Texas.

*************************EXCERPT******************************

Dean is pounding Jamaica with flooding rain that could trigger potentially deadly flash flooding and mudslides. Most areas will receive 5 to 10 inches of rain, with as much as 20 inches of rain possible in some areas.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

A still photo close-up of the eye of Category 4 Hurricane Dean. Crew members on the Space Shuttle Endeavour captured this image around 1 p.m. EDT Saturday of Hurricane Dean in the Caribbean. Image: NASA

[lentulusgracchus]

This will be an unforgettable honeymoon, no doubt.

Better marriage, though, maybe.