Posted on 08/16/2007 6:15:38 PM PDT by bnelson44
Rudy Giuliani got good news earlier this week from a CBS poll that most people have learned to mistrust -- for good reason -- but Rasmussen may provide some corroboration today. According to the normally reliable pollster, Rudy has his first significant lead in head-to-head polling against Hillary Clinton, and the crosstabs show some surprising depth (via Instapundit):
After being virtually tied with Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton for several months, Republican contender Rudy Giuliani now leads Clinton up 47% to 40% in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
In the match-up of the frontrunners, this result marks a significant shift. For the last three months the two frontrunners have never been further apart than three percentage points. Last month, Giuliani and Clinton were separated by just a single point.
Senator Clinton fares modestly better against former Senator Fred Thompson. Clinton now has a three point edge over him, 46% to 43%. All four previous Clinton-Thomas have also been toss-ups.
It's significant that neither top 50% in the poll. Eight percent insist on voting for another candidate, even when the question gets posed as a two-choice affair. Five percent are unsure. We'll come back to them in a moment.
Rudy has some surprising strength in the demographics, especially women. While pundits believe that Hillary would motivate women to flock to her banner, Giuliani actually edges Hillary 44%-42% in this poll -- within the margin of error, to be sure, but much closer than most would imagine. Giuliani has a majority of those between 30-39 years of age (54-36) while Hillary has a slimmer majority in the 40-49 range (50-44). Despite Democratic claims on the youth vote, Hillary only gets a single percentage point lead on Rudy on the 18-29 demo (38-37), and Giuliani has significant leads among those 50 and older.
Otherwise, the only other surprise among the demographics are black voters. Hillary has a lead on Giuliani there, but Rasmussen shows the split 48-41 Hillary. I'd guess this to be a typo. The "Others" category is split 55-11 for Hillary, and I'd wager that they have the two turned around. Even so, only getting 55% of the black vote in a two-way race (18% unsure) looks like a huge problem for the Democrats.
As to those who are unsure, the most significant demographics for the undecided are those that favor Giuliani. That means that we could expect them to break more towards Rudy than Hillary when push comes to shove. All in all, this seems like the kind of boost that Rudy can use to make the case that he provides the best chance for Republicans to beat Hillary next November. John Podhoretz should be dancing over at The Corner with this news.
He is not supporting a Hillary Clinton presidency. The Democrats here masquerading as conservatives are, and are running down Mr. Giuliani in order to draw votes away from the GOP in the case of Giuliani's nomination.
They are piling on in an otherwise honest and above-board discussion. If you can't see it, you've been playing in the dirt too long.
Hmmm, Rudy addressed a Handgun Control, Inc. rally. Rudy sued gun manufacturers. Rudy exploited the 1997 Empire State Building terror attack to call for more federal gun control laws. Rudy took guns away from long-time NYC permit holders.
Yep you have the temerity to say our side is not worthy of intelligent debate for being concerned about Rudy's gun-grabbing past.
In other words, because we refuse to exist in your state of abject political denial about Rudy's 2nd Amendment failings, we are not worthy of you. Pathetic.
JimRob started the Giuliani Truth File to "Swift Boat" Rudy. Nice state of denial you are living in.
They are piling on in an otherwise honest and above-board discussion.
Funny, the Rudy boosters are the ones being dishonest about Rudy's otherwise undeniable liberal history.
If you can't see it, you've been playing in the dirt too long.
I can't see it. But, then again, I don't have my head stuck where yours is, apparently.
Did I ping JimRob? I was showing how bogus the claim was that the trashing of Rudy's liberal record is the work of Dem trolls.
It is the work of the committed conservatives on FR. As opposed to RINOs like you.
I never said anything like that. That's why you side is not worthy of debate. You make crap up.
Nah, you just responded to someone talking about Rudy's gun-phobic past as a personal attack. You are as dishonest as Rudy is about his positions on gun control and abortion.
Because the Rockefeller-Wing RINOs will never be satisfied until they have regained control of the GOP
Who wants to take money out of my pocket to pay for those abortions...
Show me the response I made.
Rudder: This conversation with you has regressed to the kindergarden stage. You're simply not worthy of intelligent debate.
1. Will cut taxes.
Yet, RINO Rudy refuses to take a no new taxes pledge.
2. Will reduce the size of the Federal government.
In New York, Giuliani dramatically increased spending and left that city with the highest debt in the nation outside of the national debt.
3. Is rock solid on terrorism and foreign policy.
Yeah, a lot experience doing that a mayor of New York - not.
4. Has pledged to put strict constructionists on the Supreme Court.
Yet, he appointed liberal judges by an 8-1 margin in New York and tried to redefine what a strict constructionist is by claiming one could uphold Roe.
5. Is fearless in confronting the Liberal media.
Nixon stood up the liberal media, too. Big deal.
6. Is committed to building the wall and an electronic border for Mexico and forcing all illegals to be identified.
Yet, Giuliani has been out promoting ways to grant citizenship to illegals this week and he is the only known Republican to have filed lawsuits on their behalf while mayor of New York.
7. Is undeniably the best law and order guy out there.
Yeah, if you consider restricting Second Amendment rights and gun control to be a means of restoring law and order.
8. Has the balls to pound on Congress and anyone else necessary to get his way.
Bill Clinton did the same thing.
You are a misguided fool.
There are many like me.
I'm with you.
Why?
In order to vote for Rudy I'll have to check my principles at the door and I'm not willing to do that...
Given Rudy's blatant gun-grabber past, if you don't hate the Second Amendment, you must otherwise really not give much of a damn about it.
Which has the same end result if a gun grabber like Rudy gains the Oval Office.
I'd be voting 3rd party.
Why don't you wipe it out of your ass. Rudy is a big-time liberal and conservatives aren't going to support him. Period.
You can dredge up the Hillary bogeywoman all you want.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.