http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200704.public.html#a_topad
Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 18, 2007
...Extremely dangerous category four Dean continues westward through
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch
means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely
be required for Jamaica later this morning.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the British Virgin
Islands....U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These warnings
will likely be discontinued later today. A Tropical Storm
Warning is also in effect along the South Coast of the Dominican
Republic from Cabo engano westward to Barahona. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of Cuba...from the
province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...including
western Cuba...the Cayman Islands...and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 15.1 north...longitude 67.3 west or about 660 miles...
1065 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 240 miles...
390 km...south-southwest of San Juan Puerto Rico.
Dean is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A general
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
24 hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will be moving
south of the Dominican Republic later today and south of Haiti
tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dean is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. An
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to reach
Dean in a few hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km. NOAA buoy 42059 recently reported a 1-minute
average wind of 59 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb...27.46 inches.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected from
Dean over Puerto Rico...the Dominican Republic and Haiti with
maximum amounts up to 5 inches possible. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 500 am AST position...15.1 N...67.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph.
Minimum central pressure...930 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200704.disc.html#a_topad
Hurricane Dean Discussion Number 21
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 18, 2007
near 0500 UTC...an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
reported 154 kt flight-level winds in the northern eyewall of
Dean...and also reported that the central pressure fell to 930 mb.
The flight-level winds could have justified calling Dean a category
five hurricane. However...data from dropsondes...the stepped-
frequency microwave radiometer...and satellite intensity estimates
did not support that status. The intensity was thus set to a
slightly more conservative 130 kt. There has been little change in
the satellite appearance of Dean since the aircraft left...so 130
kt is the initial intensity for this advisory.
The initial motion is 275/15...again slightly slower than before.
Dean continues to be steered by a ridge over the western Atlantic
which should build westward during the next 72-96 hr as an
upper-level low over South Florida moves westward. In the short
term...the guidance is in good agreement on a west-northwestward
track toward Jamaica. The official forecast will follow
this...with the track down the left side of the guidance envelope
due to the initial motion. After that...UKMET...GFS...and
consensus models call for a motion toward the northern Yucatan
Peninsula and northeastern Mexico. The GFDL calls for a motion
through the Yucatan Channel to the Texas coast...while the ECMWF
and NOGAPS call for a more westerly motion through the central
Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche into Mainland Mexico. The track
forecast is nudged a little south of the previous forecast in best
agreement with the consensus models.
Since upper-level winds are forecast to remain favorable...the
intensity forecast calls for a gradual increase in strength through
72 hr due to increasing sea surface temperatures and maximum
potential intensity. However...there are likely to be significant
fluctuations on top of this due to difficult to time eyewall
replacement cycles. Passage over the Yucatan Peninsula should
cause some weakening...followed by re-intensification over the Gulf
of Mexico.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0900z 15.1n 67.3w 130 kt
12hr VT 18/1800z 15.6n 69.6w 130 kt
24hr VT 19/0600z 16.5n 72.8w 135 kt
36hr VT 19/1800z 17.6n 76.4w 135 kt
48hr VT 20/0600z 18.5n 80.0w 135 kt
72hr VT 21/0600z 20.5n 86.5w 140 kt
96hr VT 22/0600z 22.5n 92.5w 110 kt
120hr VT 23/0600z 24.5n 98.0w 115 kt...inland
$$
forecaster Beven