Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[sweet_diane]

"Didn’t yall take a real hit with Katrina?"

The whole area was effected, with Bayou LaBatre taking the brunt, I believe. You could really 'feel' her strengh over here. She didn't rage as long as Ivan did and, of course, we didn't experience the eye of Katrina, as we did with Ivan.

Ivan we lost power for 9 hours. Katrina we lost power for something like 5 or 6 days. Hubby built our house like a fortress and the trees that fell, fell away.

[abb]

Hurricane Dean Discussion Number 22

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 18, 2007

an Air Force plane entered the eye of Dean this morning and found
that the hurricane has not weakened and the initial intensity
remains at 130 knots. In fact...the minimum pressure dropped to 924
mb at around 1200 UTC and then up to 929 mb just recently. Dean
will likely go through eyewall cycles during the next few days
resulting in fluctuations in intensity. However...the peak
intensity is expected to occur in the northwestern Caribbean
between the Cayman Islands and Yucatan where the ocean heat content
is very high. Dean could become a category five at any time before
it reaches Yucatan.

The steering pattern has been very steady. Dean is moving toward the
west or 290 degrees at 15 knots steered by a high over the western
Atlantic and a low over Florida. The low is forecast to move
westward and be replaced by a strong ridge by all global models.
This pattern will keep Dean on a general west-northwest to west
track across the Caribbean Sea in the direction of Jamaica...the
Cayman Islands and Yucatan. This is consistent with track models
with the exception of the GFDL which insists on a track farther to
the north and just clipping the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 18/1500z 15.7n 68.6w 130 kt
12hr VT 19/0000z 16.4n 71.0w 130 kt
24hr VT 19/1200z 17.3n 74.3w 135 kt
36hr VT 20/0000z 18.3n 77.8w 125 kt...near or over Jamaica
48hr VT 20/1200z 19.5n 81.4w 140 kt
72hr VT 21/1200z 21.5n 88.5w 100 kt...inland
96hr VT 22/1200z 23.0n 94.0w 110 kt
120hr VT 23/1200z 25.4n 100.0w 50 kt...inland

$$
forecaster Avila

[steveegg]

Hurricane Dean Public Advisory Number 22

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 18, 2007

...Dean's fury threatens Haiti...Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands...heavy squalls already approaching Hispaniola... 
 
At 11 am...1500 UTC...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Hurricane Warning for Jamaica.  A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within
the next 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from
the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the South Coast of
the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to Barahona...and
for coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the northern
Haiti-Dominican Republic border.   A Tropical Storm Warning means
that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.
 
At 11 am...1500 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch
means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.
 
A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of Cuba...from the
province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo.  A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
 
At 11 am...1500 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for the British
Virgin Islands...U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico has been
discontinued.
 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...including
western Cuba...the Cayman Islands...and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of Dean.
 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
 
At 1100 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 15.7 north...longitude 68.6 west or about 565 miles...
910 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 210 miles...
340 km...south-southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.
 
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
track between the west and west-northwest is forecast during the
next 24 hours.  On this track the core of the hurricane will be
moving south of Hispaniola today and early Sunday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with
higher gusts.  Dean is a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.
 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km.
 
Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force hurricane
hunter plane was 929 mb...27.43 inches.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over
Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches.  Amounts of 2 to
3 inches can be expected over the Dominican Republic and Haiti with
amounts up to 6 inches possible.  Additional rain accumulations of 1
to 2 inches are possible over Puerto Rico...with isolated storm
total amounts of 5 inches. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 1100 am AST position...15.7 N...68.6 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...150
mph.  Minimum central pressure...929 mb.
 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Avila

[dirtboy]

11AM forecast track still has Dean going right over Jamaica.

[Sunnyflorida]

“We kind of got carried away:’)’

Me too. Mine looks like all the other ones in Punta Gorda. Except inside is a bomb shelter!!! The only thing I regret is not pushing harder against local codes to have an all concrete roof. We had to go with trusses but I designed them myself. They are all tied into the poured walls and upset steel beams. The tiles are screwed and glued. Hip roofs - no gables. I am 6 feet above recommended height. Generator. plus backup genset and I have the boat set up as a mulch cow. It gets 8-way strapped to the lift and is kept full of stabilized fuel. I have gas and electric water pumps. Tons of fresh water for drinking and washing and fire fighting. There is no way in heck I evacuate. I think the whole concept of evacuation routes here is bogus. People think they have ‘em them they all leave at the last minute. Look at a map, where ya gonna go if you live in SW Florida. Inland is lower than the cost!!!

[steveegg]

Guess I picked the right product to put out first :-)

[SouthTexas]

Dean needs to go to Gitmo and do us all a favor.

[sweet_diane]

"Neither does Gulf Shores! Have family on both sides of Mobile Bay, Fairhope and Bayou La Batre."

My family has owned that property in Gulf Shores since the 40's so I grew up going down there yearly. It is NOT the Gulf Shores of the 70s. FYI, The Hangout, which is no longer there, is having a reunion this month and Hubby and I hope to go.

I married a 'Fairhope boy' and have been here going on 21 years. All the farmland we used to have now is subdivisions. Everybody and their uncle wants to live here. lol

[RDTF]

*

[steveegg]

I prefer to have Dean do an extended stay in Havana; no sense getting the Marines wet.

[RDTF]

“Dean could become a category five at any time before
it reaches Yucatan”

ouch

[sweet_diane]

Bay Minette has improved its look lately, but not a tourist destination yet! lol

[abb]

This is what jumped out at me.

The steering pattern has been very steady. Dean is moving toward the west or 290 degrees at 15 knots steered by a high over the western Atlantic and a low over Florida. The low is forecast to move westward and be replaced by a strong ridge by all global models.

[NautiNurse]

Great info. Thanks!

[CindyDawg]

Wow. You are set:’)

[RDTF]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,293671,00.html

NASA Considers Cutting Mission Short Over Hurricane Dean

[prairiebreeze]

FOFL! I hadn’t thought of it that way.

[Eagle Eye]

I’ve got a coupon for an overnight stay at a local B&B in Bay Minnnette.

[dirtboy]

That appears to be happening on the GOES WV loop. We had the first autumn-like cold front go through PA yesterday. That front has pushed well to the south, and is forming a large blocking ridge against Dean's movement to the North.

One other thing on the GOES loop - it looked like there was more heavy rain in Texas yesterday. If Dean comes anywhere close to Texas (such as a landfall just south of Brownsville, it could mean some bad flooding - between a summer of excessive rain and Erin, there is nowhere for additional heavy rainfall to soak in.

[NautiNurse]

NASA Considers Cutting Mission Short Over Hurricane Dean

When Mission Control heads for the hills..."Houston, you have a problem."