Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Dysart]

Well, I’m not the “decider”, but seems to me a hurricane tracking thread, which may well impact the cont u.s. would be considered news, rather than chat. Maybe it’s been declared otherwise. The chat sub-forum is typically designated for chitchat, sports, and essentially trivial concerns.

[varina davis]

The NHC forcast is for Dean to most likely become a Cat. 4 Hurricane. And I heartily agree this thread should remain in breaking news.

Anyone remember Katrina’s impact on the nation?

[numberonepal]

Not quite time to get the malted milk balls though:

Put them in the freezer. If you don't need them for an "emergency", that extra crunch is mighty nice.

[NautiNurse]

I don’t claim to know the rules around here anymore. I saw “weather” as a topic, and this is where the thread landed. Perhaps the benevolent Admin Mods will see fit to move it to the news category when the storm imminently threatens death and destruction to populations.

[CindyDawg]

I can’t see any place in Texas becoming a Katrina though. I guess it’s possible but ...nah.

[blam]

Ditto.

Keep it up NN.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks, FRiend.

[Severa]

We’re relative newbies to hurricanes. My only experience is outrunning Isabel when we lived in VA Beach. My poor husband...*L* Toughed out Isabel on a US Navy fast attack submarine and toughed out Ivan when he was attending Navy school at NAS Pensacola. Now we live just a few miles from NAS Pax River, MD. NN I’m relying on you and the rest of the hurricane experts of FR to fill me in on the tips and tricks of getting through hurricane season.

[NautiNurse]

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 16, 2007

At 1100 am AST...1500 UTC...the Trinidad and Tobago meteorological
service has just changed the tropical storm watch to a Tropical
Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Dean advisory number  13
1100 am AST Thu Aug 16 2007

...Dean intensifying as it approaches the Lesser Antilles...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of Dominica
and St. Lucia. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

 

A Hurricane Watch continues for the islands of Martinique...
Guadeloupe and its dependencies. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours. The government of France indicates that a
Hurricane Warning will likely be issued this afternoon for
Martinique...Guadeloupe and its dependencies.

 
At 11 am AST...1500 UTC...the meteorological service of Antigua has
upgraded the tropical storm watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for
the islands of Montserrat...Antigua...St. Kitts...Nevis...and
Barbuda. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Barbados.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

 
At 11 am AST...the Barbados meteorological service has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and The Grenadines.

 
At 11 am AST...the government of the Netherlands Antilles has issued
a Tropical Storm Warning and discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
Saba and St. Eustatius.  The tropical storm watch for St. Maarten
has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

 
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Grenada and its
dependencies.  A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.

 
Additional changes to watches and warnings will likely occur later
today.

 
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles...the Virgin
Islands...Puerto Rico...and Hispaniola should monitor the progress
of Dean.

 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
At 1100 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 13.7 north...longitude 54.3 west or about 350 miles...
565 km...east of Barbados and about 455 miles...730 km...east of
Martinique.

 
Dean is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue today.  On this track the center of
Dean will be near the Lesser Antilles early Friday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Dean is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over
elevated terrain.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours.  An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft will
investigate Dean this afternoon.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from
the center.  Data from NOAA buoy 41010 indicates that tropical storm
force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km...from the
center.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb...28.91 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible
near the center of Dean.

 
Storm total rainfalls of 2 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum
amounts of 7 inches in mountainous areas...are possible in
association with Dean.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

 
Repeating the 1100 am AST position...13.7 N...54.3 W.  Movement
toward...west near 23 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...90 mph.
Minimum central pressure...979 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM AST.

 
$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila

[PeteB570]

I hate the 979 mb. stuff.

My weather station is reading 30.04 inHg right now.

:-)

[Uncle Ike]

bump for after work.....

[pgyanke]

hmmmmm... Dove Triple Chocolate...

[BlueAngel]

Thank you for the ping, NN!

Anything with Dove Chocolate is exceptional!

I’m in Katy, Tx (west of Houston) and we are having tons of rain and some powerful thunder and lightening from “Erin”. We may lose electricity soon. Hope not! Don’t even want to think about Dean, yet.

[NautiNurse]

Hold onto your hat. Dean may be Cat 2 by this evening.

[TornadoAlley3]

bookmark

[sweet_diane]

holding my place

Since we're talking about supplies... just a reminder. Cordless phones do not work when the power is out. It's a good idea to keep some corded phones to plug in during outages. I found some nice ones with caller id at WalMart for $5. We're using them and my daughers old Hello Kitty phone now due to recent lightening storms frying our cordless. ugh

If you have kids, we found that portable CD players with headphones not only entertain, they block out storm noises. (Ivan and Katrina were both quite vocal. lol)

[Orlando]

Here’s the latest computer models.
keeps changing alot.

http://www.boatus.com/HURRICANES/hurricane_spaghetti.asp

[PeteB570]

When I totaled the power requirements for my generator I was sure to include the TV, DVD player and entertainment center requirements.

I have one drop cord dedicated to that section of the living room.

Also included were small window A/C unit, fridge and computer center - gotta’ talk with NautiNurse and the rest of the gang here on the Hurricane threads.

[Pebcak]

Dr. Master’s from Underground did not just say this out loud on his blog, did he? “followed by an emergence into the Gulf of Mexico, with a second landfall near the Mexico/Texas border.”

Here for the duration. NN, you’re the best!