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To: ModelBreaker
Higher cost production (including shale) will continue to increase . . . until the price is driven down

Not while there is cheap oil. Of course, gov't subsidy could equalize process oil and pumped oil, but until then nobody would choose shale over oil reserves if he had a choice. An oil company might do some pilot plant work just in case gov't subsidies come along later.

38 posted on 07/23/2007 4:06:27 PM PDT by RightWhale (It's Brecht's donkey, not mine)
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To: RightWhale
Not while there is cheap oil. Of course, gov't subsidy could equalize process oil and pumped oil, but until then nobody would choose shale over oil reserves if he had a choice. An oil company might do some pilot plant work just in case gov't subsidies come along later.

At current prices, there is no "cheap" oil. The cost of oil is what you have to pay for it or what you can produce it for, whichever is less. For whatever reason, the low cost oil sources are not increasing production to meet world demand. Price soars. That means people can make a profit by producing oil at $30 a barrel and selling it at $78. If $30 is the best there is for large scale production, that is what will happen (as long as the government butts out). If $35 is the best there is, that is what will happen. That will continue until the price falls to make the most expensive method in production just barely profitable.

You arrgument is based on the fallacy that anyone can go out and pump $15 a barrel oil. Manifestly, that is not true. Either it's not there at larger production rates or the folks who own it are not inclined to produce it. Either way, that means higher cost production will be profitable.

52 posted on 07/23/2007 8:52:53 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
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