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To: Ol' Sparky
There has been no primary season like this one before with so many big states so early. Romney is way ahead for now in IA and NH, but that may change. This is an unusual primary w/ no incumbent and a frontloaded compressed schedule. By normal expectations Giuliani should not be the frontrunner in the polls, but he is, and is most likely to stay there.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/07/09/analysis_giulianis_campaign_on_unconventional_path/
Analysis: Giuliani’s campaign on unconventional path

Some think Giuliani’s gamble could pay off. His schedule reflects the big prizes at stake: Florida, which votes just weeks after Iowa and New Hampshire on Jan. 29, has 112 delegates. California, with its 173 delegates, votes with more than a dozen other states, including New York, New Jersey and Illinois, on Feb. 5. Iowa and New Hampshire have 32 delegates each.

“Just because something has never happened before, there’s no reason why it can’t happen now. History is a guide to the future, not a straitjacket,” said GOP consultant Whit Ayres.

The best scenario for such a strategy to succeed is if there are different winners in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Fabrizio said.

“The key to Giuliani’s ultimate victory is that there be no one consensus conservative that emerges to challenge him; he needs more conservative candidates to split up the vote as you move to Feb. 5 and beyond,” Fabrizio said.

39 posted on 07/10/2007 11:01:24 AM PDT by finnman69 (May Paris Hilton's plane crash into Britney Spears house while Lindsey Lohan is over doing coke)
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To: finnman69
By normal expectations Giuliani should not be the frontrunner in the polls, but he is, and is most likely to stay there.

Given that he has been behind Fred Thompson -- a candidate that hasn't spent a single dime or visited any of the primary states -- why on earth would you consider RINO Rudy the frontrunner, let alone one there to stay?

The only thing unusual about this race is that media has a liberal Republican candidate that it can make into the frontrunner.

There is tremendous ignorance among the generic Republican about all the candidates in the national polls. The closer we get to the primaries and the more the generic Republican discovers about Ghoulinai's beliefs, the more his poll numbers will decline, just they have in the early primary states where voters are more focused on the candidates.

40 posted on 07/10/2007 11:36:05 AM PDT by Ol' Sparky
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To: finnman69
“The key to Giuliani’s ultimate victory is that there be no one consensus conservative that emerges to challenge him; he needs more conservative candidates to split up the vote as you move to Feb. 5 and beyond,” Fabrizio said.

Which is why I'll be supporting whoever can beat Rudy. Wether it be Fred or Mitt or whoever.

46 posted on 07/13/2007 1:27:38 PM PDT by NeoCaveman (take my governor, please)
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